新天然气：Q1业绩稳健增长，煤层气产量有望进一步释放-20250430

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%, and a net profit of 390 million yuan, an increase of 15.7% year-on-year [1] - The company has received government subsidies for coalbed methane extraction, amounting to 155 million yuan, which positively impacts its financial performance [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing production capacity in various blocks, particularly the Pan Zhuang block, which is projected to maintain an output of around 1 billion cubic meters per year from 2025 to 2028 [4][7] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 42.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 36.7%, up 6.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from 3.517 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.023 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.3% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1.048 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.629 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6] Operational Highlights - The company has made significant investments in the Ma Bi block, which has proven reserves of over 53 billion cubic meters, and is expected to ramp up production significantly in the coming years [4][7] - The company has secured exploration rights in the Xinjiang San Tang Lake area, further strengthening its upstream resource reserves [4][7] - The company is also expected to see improvements in its urban gas business margins due to recent price adjustments in natural gas sales [7]