高盛：中国近期土地市场 “复苏迹象” 的宏观影响

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Recent land market data indicates "green shoots" with higher land prices in major cities and increased land transactions, suggesting potential recovery in the property sector [5][6][7] - Despite these signs, the report cautions that they do not predict an immediate rise in property construction due to ongoing challenges in local government financing and land availability [5][6][38] - The property sector remains critical to China's GDP, accounting for approximately 19% of GDP in 2024, down from a peak of around 27% in 2020 [8][41] Summary by Sections Land Market Dynamics - Land sales data has shown recent improvements, with land prices rising in Tier-1 and some Tier-2 cities, while lower-tier cities continue to struggle [13][14] - Local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) accounted for 70% of total land sales volume in 2024, indicating a reliance on these entities for revenue generation rather than construction [5][23][24] Supply-Demand Mismatch - There is a persistent supply-demand mismatch across city tiers, with large cities experiencing a decline in land sales volume since 2021, while lower-tier cities face significant challenges from population outflows and high housing inventory [29][30] Government Revenue and Fiscal Implications - Government land sales revenue is expected to contract by 5-10% in 2025, reflecting ongoing economic challenges and the impact of US tariffs [41][42] - The report anticipates that property construction and investment have not yet reached their lowest point, projecting a continued drag on GDP growth from the property sector [41][38] Future Outlook - Recent stabilization in land prices in major cities may help anchor home prices, particularly for quality homes, but a broader recovery in home prices is still distant [41][44]