Guolian Sec(601456) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-30 05:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guolian Minsheng [3] Core Views - Guolian Minsheng's performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 1.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 801% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 130%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 380 million yuan, compared to a loss of 220 million yuan in Q1 2024 [1][6] - The company has seen significant growth in its various business segments post-merger, with brokerage revenue increasing by 334% year-on-year, investment revenue recovering from a loss to 710 million yuan, and investment management revenue growing by 14% [6] - The report highlights the complementary advantages of the merged entities, suggesting that the integration of Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities could lead to enhanced performance through resource sharing and business collaboration [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Guolian Minsheng are as follows: 2025E at 4.75 billion yuan, 2026E at 6.76 billion yuan, and 2027E at 7.91 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 77.1%, 42.2%, and 17.1% respectively [2][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 990 million yuan in 2025E, 1.21 billion yuan in 2026E, and 1.48 billion yuan in 2027E, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 149%, 22.4%, and 22.4% respectively [2][7] - The report indicates an increase in the company's return on equity (ROE) from 0.96% in Q1 2025 to an estimated 2.85% in 2025E [2][6] Market Position and Business Segments - Guolian Minsheng's brokerage business has seen a significant increase in market share, with a daily average trading volume of 1.75 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 71% [6] - The company has also improved its position in margin financing, with a market share increase to 0.95% as of Q1 2025 [6] - The report notes that while the company's performance in equity underwriting has lagged behind the industry, its bond underwriting has doubled year-on-year, and it ranks fifth in the industry for IPO underwriting on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [6]