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迎驾贡酒(603198):公司事件点评报告:Q1业绩承压,产品结构升级

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9] Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance faced slight pressure, but overall profitability continues to improve. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 73.44 billion and 25.89 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9% and 13% [5] - The company is experiencing a stable growth in its product structure, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increasing by 13.76% while ordinary liquor revenue decreased by 6.53% in 2024 [6] - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantages in product strength, brand power, and distribution channels, leading to continuous profit growth [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company's total revenue was 73.44 billion yuan, with a net profit of 25.89 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% and 13% respectively [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 74%, up by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 35%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 3.26, 3.53, and 3.85 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [9][11] Product and Market Analysis - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 57.13 billion yuan, while ordinary liquor revenue was 12.89 billion yuan, with respective gross margins of 81.07% and 57.93% [6] - Revenue from direct sales (including group purchases) grew by 34.62%, while wholesale and agency revenue increased by 8.01% in 2024 [6] - The company's revenue from domestic sales reached 50.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.75%, while revenue from outside the province was 19.09 billion yuan, up by 1.31% [6]