周大生（002867）：金价压制终端需求，高分红政策延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 16.32 CNY based on a 17x PE valuation for 2025 [4][9]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant revenue decline in 2024, with a 14.7% decrease to 13.89 billion CNY, primarily due to high gold prices suppressing demand [8]. - Despite the challenges, the company plans to focus on brand matrix, e-commerce breakthroughs, innovative franchise models, and cross-border brand expansion as key growth drivers for 2025 [8]. - The company is committed to a high dividend policy, with an expected payout ratio of 102.1% for 2024 [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2025-2027 EPS estimates are 0.96, 1.14, and 1.30 CNY respectively [4][9]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.05 billion, 15.06 billion, and 16.52 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 1.2%, 7.1%, and 9.7% respectively [4][8]. - Profitability Metrics: - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 21.8% in 2025, with net margin projected at 7.5% [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.05 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth of 3.8% [4][8]. - Valuation Ratios: - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 14.1 in 2025, decreasing to 10.4 by 2027 [4][8].