XfmGroup(603225) 长城证券·2025-05-16 13:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [5][21]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable performance in 2024, with a revenue increase of 9.1% year-on-year to 67.09 billion yuan and a slight net profit increase of 1.3% to 1.1 billion yuan [1][2]. - The report highlights that the petrochemical sector has negatively impacted short-term performance, but overall profitability remains stable [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in the long filament industry, supported by its integrated PTA-polyester supply chain [12][13]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 67.09 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.1%. The net profit is expected to be 1.1 billion yuan, reflecting a modest growth of 1.3% [1][2]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.72 yuan for 2024, with expectations of growth to 0.96 yuan in 2025 and 1.49 yuan by 2027 [1][13]. - Return on Equity (ROE): The ROE is expected to slightly decrease to 6.4% in 2024 but is projected to improve to 10.3% by 2027 [1][13]. - Cash Flow: The net cash flow from operating activities is expected to increase significantly by 85.57% year-on-year to 6.79 billion yuan in 2024, driven by higher cash receipts from sales [3]. Industry Overview - The polyester filament industry is currently facing price pressures, but the long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, leading to a gradual recovery in industry conditions [10][11]. - The report notes that the overall polyester industry in China is experiencing good growth, with exports expected to rise by 15% in 2024 [11]. - The company has a strong market position, with a domestic market share exceeding 12% in polyester filament production, and is the largest producer of polyester short fibers in China [12].