钢材周报：终端需求不佳，期价震荡偏弱-20250526

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The macro - level shows that from January to April, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.20315 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. The new housing construction area was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8%. The housing completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [1][4][10]. - In terms of fundamentals, last week, the output of rebar was 2.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,000 tons, the apparent demand was 2.47 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons. The rebar factory inventory was 1.88 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons, the social inventory was 4.16 million tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons, and the total inventory was 6.04 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3.06 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons, the factory inventory was 770,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, the social inventory was 2.63 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons, the total inventory was 3.4 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons, and the apparent demand was 3.13 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons [1][5]. - Overall, the industrial data last week was poor. The overall steel production increased, the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory continued to decline. The real estate continued its weak trend, infrastructure investment was stable but not strong, terminal data was poor. Coupled with the seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the impact of tariffs on hot - rolled coil exports, steel demand was weak, and steel prices were expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5]. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3046 | - 36 | - 1.17 | 6951630 | 2902476 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3189 | - 37 | - 1.15 | 2170566 | 1353196 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 718.0 | - 10.0 | - 1.37 | 1542621 | 756347 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 801.5 | - 51.0 | - 5.98 | 2192852 | 568597 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1383.0 | - 62.5 | - 4.32 | 110769 | 56994 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated downward. The real estate investment at the terminal was weak, industrial data was poor, and the expectation of weak consumption increased, leading to a decline in both futures and spot prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2940 (- 10) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3180 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3260 (- 30) yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, presided over a symposium on financial support for the real economy, requiring the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy and maintain a reasonable growth of the financial aggregate. It also emphasized increasing support for key areas such as technological innovation, consumption boosting, private small and micro - enterprises, and stable foreign trade, making full use of existing and incremental policies, strengthening the implementation and transmission of monetary policy, and maintaining a fair market competition order [6][7]. Related Charts - The content provides multiple charts including the trend of rebar futures and monthly spreads, the trend of hot - rolled coil futures and monthly spreads, the rebar basis trend, the hot - rolled coil basis trend, the rebar spot regional price difference trend, the hot - rolled coil spot regional price difference trend, the smelting profit of long - process steel mills, the profit of short - process electric furnaces in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar output, hot - rolled coil output, rebar social inventory, hot - rolled coil social inventory, rebar factory inventory, hot - rolled coil factory inventory, rebar total inventory, hot - rolled coil total inventory, rebar apparent consumption, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption [9][11][13]