投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260212 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 1 月非农超预期，A 股延续缩量修复 海外方面，美国 1 月非农新增 13 万，显著高于预期的 7 万，创去年 4 月以来新高；失 业率降至 4.3%，时薪环比 0.4%，均强于预期，显示 1 月就业仍具韧性。与此同时，年度基 准修正力度较大：截至 2025 年 3 月的 12 个月非农就业总规模下调 86.2 万，经修正后，2025 年全年新增仅 18.1 万，远低于此前公布的 58.4 万，目前就业市场呈现"单月偏强"与"中 期动能放缓"的分化，后续仍待数据验证。数据发布后，市场降息预期有所延后，美股高开 低走，美元指数震荡上行，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.17%，金银铜延续震荡修复，油价上涨约 1%。今日关注最新初请失业金人数。 国内方面，1 月 CPI 同比录得 0.2%，弱于预期 0.4%，核心 CPI 回落至 0.8%，春节错月 推高上年同期基数，形成同比回落，其中猪肉、能源、旅游服务价格较为疲软；PPI 同比录 得-1.4%， ...

2026 年 2 月 11 日 战略属性价值抬升，铜价中枢上移 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 ⚫ 宏观方面，10月如期降息后美联储内部分歧加 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 24 ⚫ 风险点：联储12月暂停降息，美国经济现衰退迹 铜月报 象全球经济增速放缓 核心观点及策略 核心观点及策略 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 宏观方面，美联储1月暂停降息，新任提名主席 沃什主张的"降息+缩表"政策组合短期内或难 以实施，其政策独立性仍将受到挑战。美国当前 以聚焦核心利益为优先，试图扩大对西半球关 键矿产和资源的获取，而我国也计划扩大铜战 略储备规模，增强在铜产业链上游谈判中的话 语权和供应 ...

联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 12 月零售不及预期，A 股延续缩量修复 海外方面，美国 12 月零售销售环比录得 0%，显著低于预期的 0.4%，也较 11 月的 0.6% 明显回落，主要受机动车及其他耐用品支出回落拖累，同时 10 月零售销售被下修至-0.2%。 在生活成本持续上行、进口关税抬升物价的背景下，居民消费压力加大，支出疲态进一步显 现。海外市场风偏回落，美股分化走弱，美元指数回落至 96.8，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.14%， 金银铜震荡收跌，油价走弱，关注今晚美国 1 月非农数据。 国内方面，短期仍处于经济数据和政策真空期，A 股周二延续修复，上证指数窄幅震荡 收于 4128 点，科创 50、红利板块相对占优，文化传媒板块领涨，两市超 3100 只个股收跌、 赚钱效应走弱，成交额回落至 2.12 万亿元、为 2026 年来新低，两融余额继续边际下降，市 场仍处于缓慢修复中，一方面受海外风偏影响，另一方面年前做多资金回流、提前布局题材， 短期仍以震荡修复为主，结构性机会占优，今日关注 1 月 CPI。 贵金属：金银价格回调，关注今 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260210 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外风险偏好回暖，主要资产普遍反弹 海外方面，日本执政党在 2 月众议院选举获压倒性胜利，首相称食品减税将通过非税收 入与补贴审查筹资、不发行赤字国债，日股涨近 4%，日元兑美元升值 0.85%。贝森特称即 便沃什执掌美联储，缩表亦难加速，在压低按揭利率目标下，美联储将以金融稳定优先，避 免激进收紧。市场风险偏好继续修复，美股全线收涨，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.19%，金银分 别修复至 5030、82 美元，铜价、油价延续收涨 1%+。本周关注美国 1 月非农、CPI 以及 12 月零售数据。 国内方面，上周处于经济数据与政策真空期，国内市场跟随海外进一步修复，A 股周一 延续修复，上证指数低开高走收于 4123 点，双创板块领涨，红利风格相对较弱，两市超 4700 只个股收涨、赚钱效应极好，成交额小幅升至 2.27 万亿元，两融余额边际下降，中证 500、 中证 1000ETF 显著净流入。市场正从月初的大跌中逐渐修复：一方面受海外科技股反弹 ...

棕榈油月报 关注马棕油去库节奏 棕榈油仍有支撑 核心观点及策略 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国和伊朗地缘局势不确定较大，油价止跌上涨，对油 脂板块形成支撑。生柴政策方面。生柴政策方面，前期 预期2026年下半年开始实施B50政策，由于资金和技术等 因素的限制，印尼政府计划取消在2026年实施B50政策， 但相关研究工作仍在进行；印尼政府启动全国性专项整 治行动，旨在全面收回被非法采矿和油棕种植侵占的国 有林区，也影响棕榈油的生产。美国特朗普政府预计将 在3月初敲定2026年生物柴油政策，预计将把生物燃料掺 混义务量维持在52-56亿加仑，将放弃惩罚可再生燃料及 其原料进口的计划；美国发布的45Z拟议规则，维持税收 抵免范围在北美原料。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 ⚫ 各机构高频数据显示，1月马棕油产量环比减少，出口需 求持续改善，主要是印度1月棕榈油进口量大幅增加，外 媒报道印度1月进口 ...

豆粕月报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 出口前景提振外盘 连粕整体震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/21 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国农业部2月报告前瞻显示，美豆平衡表调整有限， 巴西大豆产量小幅增加，阿根廷产量基本持平，影响 预计偏中性；关注美国农业展望论坛本月发布的新季 美豆种植面积报告。截至1月底，美豆出口销售进度为 80%，略慢于去年同期，中国采购美豆1200万吨目标达 成，采购节奏放缓。近期特朗普称中国本年度将额外 增加800万吨大豆采购，提振外盘上涨，关注后续采购 动向。美国大豆压榨量维持增势，接下来关注美国生 柴政策发布，当前利多预 ...

核心观点及策略 铜周报 风险偏好回落，铜价下寻支撑 ⚫ 上周铜价高位回落，主因美国就业市场表现愈发低迷或拖 累一季度经济增长，此外上周市场避险情绪有所降温，金 银高位调整幅度较大，此外美元止跌回升对金属市场形成 短期压制，而美国科技股的估值回归也对铜价形成向下压 力；基本面来看，矿端供应偏紧格局延续，国内冶炼厂产 量边际下滑，全球显性库存继续上行，内贸现货转向小幅 升水，近月盘面C结构收窄。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 铜周报 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2026 年 2 月 9 日 ⚫ 整体来看，全球避险情绪降温令金银价格短期巨震，欧美 央行开年均暂停降息以及新任提名主席沃 ...

2026 年 2 月 9 日 基本面驱动不强 铁矿石震荡承压 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 核心观点及策略 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责条款 铁矿石月报 ⚫ 要点需求端：1月铁矿石需求以刚性为主，钢厂高炉检 修增加、终端需求季节性走弱，铁水产量小幅波动。 节后高炉复产将带动日耗回升，但成材库存压制利 润，旺季需求落空概率较大，铁水产量恢复预计缓 慢，2月总量受假期影响大概率低于1月，需求端支 撑有限。 ⚫ 供应端：铁矿石供应宽松格局延续。尽管澳巴主流 矿山发货量环比微降，但因前期高发运延迟到港， 港口库存已攀升至历史高位。非主流矿发运受价格 影响回落，国内矿山亦受季节性限产。虽南半球雨 季或扰动二季 ...

铝产业链月报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 风险情绪下行供需季节性弱 铝价震荡向下调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 25 进入休假，铸造铝检修增多开工率逐步下滑。海外 ADC12报价维持高位震荡，受国内价格下跌影响，进 口盈利空间持续收窄并一度转为小幅亏损，进口货 源对国内市场的冲击减弱。下游需求偏弱，高价备 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 ⚫ 氧化铝方面，1月氧化铝出现部分减产检修，涉及产 能约500万吨，不过这些减产多以焙烧炉检修为主， 后续产能将陆续恢复。临近春节物流运力将有大幅 下降，氧化铝厂库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both weak before the Spring Festival, and the post - festival trend depends on the game between upstream and downstream**: In the coking coal segment, production is adjusted due to the Spring Festival and safety production constraints, and it is expected to decline seasonally in February and recover quickly after the festival. In the coke segment, poor profits suppress production enthusiasm, and supply is in a contraction state. In the steel mill segment, production will remain at a low level during the Spring Festival, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover after the Lantern Festival, but the actual recovery height depends on the game between terminal demand release intensity and steel mill profit levels. In the next month, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will first decline and then rise. The supply of coking coal is expected to be loose, while the supply of coke will continue to contract. The demand depends on terminal demand and steel mill profit space. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that coking coal and coke will mainly fluctuate within a range, with coke in the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan/ton and coking coal in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/ton [3][33]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Futures market**: In January, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated widely, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Coking coal futures first rose due to winter storage expectations, then fell due to high Mongolian coal customs clearance and sufficient domestic supply, and finally entered a shock phase. Coke futures basically followed the trend of coking coal [8]. - **Spot market**: Mongolian coal prices were closely linked to futures, while Shanxi - produced coking coal prices were relatively lagging. In January, the mainstream coal types in Shanxi generally rose by 80 - 150 yuan/ton in the middle of the month and then weakened in the late month [8]. - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal, the supply pressure gradually accumulated, with increased domestic coal mine production and high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance. The downstream winter storage brought phased demand but with limited intensity. For coke, the supply - demand pattern was loose, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises increased slightly, but profits continued to shrink [8]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Upstream Coking Coal Production Declined Slightly - In January, coking coal production decreased by 3.2% month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year, mainly affected by the Spring Festival and weak downstream demand. Shanxi's production decreased by 4% month - on - month, while Inner Mongolia's increased by 2.1%. State - owned key coal mines accounted for 72% of the total output, and private small and medium - sized mines had a low start - up rate of 52%. In February, production is expected to decline seasonally and recover quickly after the festival [9][11]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal Import Had a Good Momentum - In 2025, China's coking coal imports were low in the first half and high in the second half, with a total import volume of 118.6256 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.66%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78.3% of the total imports. In January, Mongolian coal customs clearance increased significantly year - on - year, and the port inventory was high. After the Spring Festival, customs clearance is expected to remain at a high level [12]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal Inventory Analysis - In January, the coking coal market was in a state of inventory accumulation. The inventory was transferred from upstream to mid - and downstream. By the end of January, the upstream coal mine raw coal inventory increased by 660,000 tons month - on - month, the port inventory decreased by 130,000 tons, the coking plant inventory increased by 1.95 million tons, and the steel mill coking coal inventory increased by 76,000 tons [17]. 3.2.4 Overall Contraction of Coke Supply - In January, coking enterprises' profits were poor, and the start - up rate increased limitedly. The national coking profit was - 50 - 60 yuan/ton, and the independent coking enterprise start - up rate was stable at around 72%. Coke production was at a relatively low level, and the supply continued to contract. Steel mill coke production remained stable, with a daily average output of 465,000 - 470,000 tons [19]. 3.2.5 Coke Import and Export - In 2025, China's coke exports showed a downward trend, with a total export volume of 794,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. Exports were mainly to Indonesia, India, and Japan. In 2026, coke exports are expected to be generally stable. Domestic coke self - sufficiency rate is high, and imports have little impact on the market [21][22]. 3.2.6 Coke Inventory - Before the Spring Festival, coke inventory increased, mainly driven by steel mill replenishment. By the end of January, the total domestic coke inventory was about 9.2 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons month - on - month. The coking plant inventory decreased by 60,000 tons, the port inventory increased by 200,000 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 360,000 tons [23]. 3.3 Demand Side: Contracted Before the Festival and Recovered After the Festival - Affected by the Spring Festival and pre - festival stockpiling, coke demand weakened before the festival. In January, overall consumption was stable, slightly better than the same period last year. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills remained in the range of 80% - 85%, and the daily average pig iron output was about 2.28 million tons, a slight decrease of 5,000 tons month - on - month. It is expected that the start - up rate will remain low in early February and gradually recover after the Lantern Festival, but it depends on the game between steel mill profit repair and raw material costs [28]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Coking coal**: Affected by the Spring Festival and safety production, production will decline seasonally in February and recover quickly after the festival, and the supply will be generally stable [32]. - **Coke**: Coking enterprises' profits are poor, and the supply continues to contract. Steel mill self - produced coke remains stable [32]. - **Steel mills**: During the Spring Festival, production will remain at a low level. After the Lantern Festival, the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover, but the actual recovery height depends on terminal demand and steel mill profit levels [32]. - **Macro - level**: The domestic economy is stable, with weak real estate investment and strong infrastructure and manufacturing investment. Overseas, there are geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions, and the global economy has uncertainties. In the next month, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will first decline and then rise, and they are expected to fluctuate within a range [33].