铁矿周报：铁水产量见顶，铁矿调整为主-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand side shows that steel mills are increasing furnace shutdowns and maintenance during the off - season. The maintenance period is long and mainly involves large blast furnaces, indicating that molten iron production has peaked. The supply side reveals that last week's overseas shipment volume increased month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years, while the arrival volume decreased month - on - month. Overall, the fundamentals have weakened, and it is expected that iron ore will fluctuate weakly [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3046 yuan/ton, a decline of 36 yuan, a drop of 1.17%, a total trading volume of 6,951,630 lots, and a total open interest of 2,902,476 lots [2] - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3189 yuan/ton, a decline of 37 yuan, a drop of 1.15%, a total trading volume of 2,170,566 lots, and a total open interest of 1,353,196 lots [2] - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 718.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 10.0 yuan, a drop of 1.37%, a total trading volume of 1,542,621 lots, and a total open interest of 756,347 lots [2] - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 801.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 51.0 yuan, a drop of 5.98%, a total trading volume of 2,192,852 lots, and a total open interest of 568,597 lots [2] - DCE coke had a closing price of 1383.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 62.5 yuan, a drop of 4.32%, a total trading volume of 110,769 lots, and a total open interest of 56,994 lots [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated downward. With a stable macro - environment and weakening demand in the fundamentals, the iron ore price declined. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 753 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 625 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 128 yuan/ton [4] - On the demand side, steel mills are increasing furnace shutdowns and maintenance during the off - season. The maintenance period is long and mainly involves large blast furnaces, indicating that molten iron production has peaked. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.19 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.78 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.63 percentage points; the daily average molten iron production was 2.436 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 68,000 tons [1][4] - On the supply side, last week's overseas shipment volume increased month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years, while the arrival volume decreased month - on - month. The total global iron ore shipment volume was 3.3478 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 318,800 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2.7755 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 283,200 tons. The total shipment volume from Australia was 1.8887 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,100 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons. The total shipment volume from Brazil was 886,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 237,100 tons. The iron ore shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2.7061 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 283,600 tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 1.8278 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,600 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.579 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,800 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 878,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 253,100 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 14.59183 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 155,160 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 343,190 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons [1][5] 3.3 Industry News - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, chaired a symposium on financial support for the real economy, requiring the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy and maintain a reasonable growth of the financial aggregate. It is necessary to increase support for key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, consumption stimulation, private small and micro - enterprises, and stable foreign trade, and make full use of existing and incremental policies. Strengthen the implementation and transmission of monetary policy and maintain a fair market competition order [9] - From January to April, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.20315 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.31937 billion square meters, a decrease of 10.1%. The new housing construction area was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 131.64 million square meters, a decrease of 22.3%. The housing completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9%. Among them, the residential completion area was 114.24 million square meters, a decrease of 16.8% [9] - From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.47024 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment increased by 0.2% year - on - year. On a month - on - month basis, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in April increased by 0.10%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 11.7% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 6.3%, manufacturing investment increased by 8.8%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 25.5%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) increased by 5.8% year - on - year. Among them, investment in water conservancy management increased by 30.7%, investment in water transportation increased by 26.9%, and investment in air transportation increased by 13.9% [9] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to the futures and spot trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore; the basis trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore; steel mill profit per ton; the profit and loss situation of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry; the daily and ten - day steel production in the country; the inventory of steel billets in the country and Tangshan; the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil; the increase rate of the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil; the factory inventory of steel; the weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coil in steel mills; the apparent consumption of steel; the terminal procurement volume of wire rods and rebar in Shanghai; the daily and ten - day production of pig iron and crude steel in the country; the number of profitable steel mills; the daily molten iron production; the operation situation of electric furnaces in the country; the blast furnace operating rate; the port inventory of 45 ports and main ports; the port inventory by iron ore type; the number of ships at ports; the average available days of iron ore in steel mills; the total inventory and daily consumption of iron ore in steel mills; the shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil; the arrival volume of iron ore at six northern ports; the shipment volume of iron ore mines; and the number of ships arriving in China with iron ore [7][10][12]