贵金属周报：关税威胁再现，金价受到提振-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The prices of gold and silver were boosted by Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, which weakened the US dollar index and increased global market risk aversion. Meanwhile, the tax reform bill promoted by US President Trump in Congress raised concerns about the expansion of the fiscal deficit. Trump's tariff threat on Friday further boosted precious metal prices [3][6]. - The US - EU trade negotiation is ongoing. Trump initially claimed to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting from June 1, but later postponed the deadline to July 9. Japan is considering accepting a US tariff reduction, and India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement expected to reach a temporary agreement by early July [3][6]. - Although the US - China trade relationship has recently eased, there is still great uncertainty in the trade negotiations between the US and other economies such as the EU and Japan. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks occur frequently. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations, so the short - term gold price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 780.10 | 28.30 | 3.76 | 220512 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 775.72 | 21.63 | 2.87 | 48148 | 210456 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3357.70 | 152.40 | 4.75 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 8263 | 162 | 2.00 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 8244 | 131 | 1.61 | 372524 | 3454112 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 33.64 | 1.21 | 3.73 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The precious metal prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend last week due to Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the tax reform bill, and Trump's tariff threat [3][6]. - The US - EU trade negotiation is in progress. Trump postponed the tariff deadline for the EU to July 9. Japan may accept a US tariff reduction, and India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by early July [3][6]. - The tax reform bill led by Trump will increase the federal debt by about $3.8 trillion in the next decade, causing concerns about fiscal sustainability and global bond market fluctuations. The bill will face challenges in the Senate vote [6]. - Fed officials emphasized patience in policy adjustment. The market expects a 90% probability of an ECB interest rate cut next month [6][7]. - Geopolitical risks include the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiation and the "Gideon's Sword" operation by the Israeli Defense Forces [7]. - This week, focus on US economic data such as GDP and PCE, and events like the US trade negotiations, the Fed's May meeting minutes, and speeches by Fed officials [8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - In May, the US manufacturing PMI reached a three - month high of 52.3, and the service PMI was 52.3, with new orders growing at the fastest rate in a year. However, manufacturing export orders contracted for the second consecutive month, and the employment index declined [9]. - As of the week ending May 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 2000 to 227,000, a four - week low, indicating a stable employment market [9]. - In May, the eurozone manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.2, but the service PMI dropped to 48.9, a 16 - month low, dragging down the composite PMI to 49.5. The money market increased bets on further ECB interest rate cuts this year [9]. - In April, US new home sales reached the highest level since February 2022, with an annualized growth of nearly 11% to 743,000 units [9]. - In April, Japan's core CPI rose 3.5% year - on - year, and the price of rice increased by 98%, which may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in October [10]. - In April, China's gold imports reached 127.5 metric tons, a 73% increase, a new high in 11 months [10]. - As of May 20, the total gold holdings of precious metal ETFs were 922.46 tons, an increase of 3.73 tons from last week. The silver holdings of ishare were 14217.50 tons, an increase of 302.60 tons from last week [10]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts - The content provides multiple charts including SHFE and COMEX precious metal prices, inventory changes, non - commercial net long positions, and the relationship between precious metal prices and other economic indicators such as the US dollar, inflation, and interest rates [14][15][16]