Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the central bank's OMO net - injected 656.6 billion yuan in liquidity, and the money market remained generally loose. Despite factors such as corporate income tax settlement and cross - month effects, DR007 stayed above 1.6%, while overnight rates continued to decline. The R001 on the cross - month day was the lowest since December last year. The OMO balance remaining high has limited indication for the money market, and the central bank may control the money price through implicit regulation of bank lending. The DR007 mean in June may fall to the range of 1.4% - 1.5% [3]. - It is expected that the net payment scale of government bonds next week will drop from 353.1 billion yuan this week to 193.2 billion yuan. The net financing scale of government bonds in June is estimated to be about 1.31 trillion yuan, slightly lower than that in May. Although there are factors such as tax payment and high reverse - repurchase maturity scale next week, the central bank's attitude to maintain the money market is clear, and the DR007 central rate may fall to the range of 1.4% - 1.5% [3][4]. - In the inter - bank certificate of deposit market, the secondary rate of AAA - rated 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit rose by 1.0BP to 1.705% this week. The supply - demand relative strength index of certificates of deposit fluctuated and declined. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit is about 607 billion yuan, a decrease of 50 billion yuan compared with this week [4]. - In the bill market, bill rates first rose and then fell this week. The 3 - month national - share bill rate rose by 7BP to 1.16%, while the 6 - month national - share bill rate fell by 3BP to 1.06% [4]. - In the bond trading sentiment tracking, the bond market adjusted this week, and the spreads of short - and medium - term credit and perpetual bonds widened slightly. Different types of institutions have different trends in bond trading sentiment [4]. Summary by Directory I. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Money Market Review - The central bank's OMO net - injected 656.6 billion yuan in liquidity this week, and the 5 - month buy - out reverse - repurchase had a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan for the second consecutive month. The money market remained generally loose. DR007 stayed above 1.6%, and overnight rates continued to decline. The R001 on the cross - month day was 1.57%, the lowest since December last year [3][7]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase first rose to 7.16 trillion yuan on Tuesday and then declined, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 0.22 trillion yuan to 6.50 trillion yuan. The overall scale of pledged repurchase rose above 11 trillion yuan on Thursday and then seasonally declined on Friday but was still higher than last week. The net lending of various banks generally increased before the end of the month but declined before the cross - month. The net lending of large banks was significantly higher than last week, while that of joint - stock banks and city commercial banks decreased compared with last week. The rigid net lending of banks rose to 4.3 trillion yuan on Thursday and then declined but was still higher than last week. The rigid lending of non - bank institutions declined significantly compared with last week, mainly due to the large decline of money funds. The non - bank borrowing scale was higher than last week [3][15]. - The money gap index first decreased and then increased. The seasonally - adjusted index rose to - 172 on Friday, still lower than - 125 of the previous week, and the non - seasonally - adjusted index remained at a low level of - 1864 on Friday. Both were at the lowest levels for cross - month since this year. The cross - month progress of the money market in the inter - bank market accelerated this week, while that in the exchange market was always slow. Overall, the cross - month progress of institutions in May was relatively fast. Among them, other non - bank institutions in the inter - bank market had a relatively fast cross - month progress, while joint - stock banks, securities companies, and funds had a relatively slow cross - month progress [3][17]. - The high OMO balance has limited relation with the money market, and the core excess reserves excluding OMO also have limited indication for the money market. Since March, the money has continued to loosen under the condition of low excess reserves, which may reflect the central bank's implicit regulation of bank lending to control the money price. The short - term OMO balance increase is mainly to enhance the effectiveness of the central bank's regulation but has limited indication for the money price [23]. - The spread between the average DR007 in May and OMO decreased to 19BP, returning to the level of Q4 last year. Considering the central bank's priority of cost reduction, the DR007 central rate may fall to the range of 1.4% - 1.5% in June, and the normalization of monetary policy is expected to be achieved [29]. 1.2 Next Week's Money Market Outlook - It is expected that the national debt payment scale next week will be 220 billion yuan. As of this week, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 was 351 billion yuan, new special bonds was 1633.6 billion yuan, ordinary refinancing bonds was 701.1 billion yuan, and special refinancing bonds was 1629.1 billion yuan. The local bond issuance scale in 6 regions such as Hunan, Tianjin, and Henan next week is 109.6 billion yuan. The overall net payment scale of government bonds next week will drop from 353.1 billion yuan this week to 193.2 billion yuan [31]. - The net financing of government bonds in May was 1494.8 billion yuan, including 940.2 billion yuan for national debt and 554.6 billion yuan for local bonds. It is maintained that the net financing scale of national debt in June is about 750 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance speed may accelerate in June, with the monthly net financing expected to reach 560 billion yuan. Overall, it is still expected that the government bond issuance scale in June is about 2.67 trillion yuan, and the net financing is about 1.31 trillion yuan, slightly lower than that in May [36]. - The reverse - repurchase maturity scale next week will rise to 1602.6 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will drop from 353.1 billion yuan this week to 193.2 billion yuan, mainly concentrated on Thursday and Friday. In addition, the first half of next week is the payment period for the annual settlement of corporate income tax, and June 5th is the reserve payment day for the first ten - day period. Although there are tax payment effects on the money market in the first half of next week and the reverse - repurchase maturity scale is high, considering the central bank's active reverse - repurchase hedging during the tax period in May, its attitude to maintain the money market is clear. It is expected that the DR007 central rate may fall to the range of 1.4% - 1.5% next week [41]. II. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - This week, the 1 - year Shibor rate rose by 1.6BP to 1.70%. The 1 - year joint - stock bank certificate of deposit issuance rate fell by 0.8BP to 1.70%, and the secondary rate of AAA - rated 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit rose by 1.0BP to 1.705% [41][42]. - The issuance scale and maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit both decreased this week, with the certificates of deposit turning to a net financing of 1.25 billion yuan. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 140.4 billion yuan, - 89.8 billion yuan, - 4.2 billion yuan, and - 26.5 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit rose by 30 percentage points to 59%. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit is about 607 billion yuan, a decrease of 50 billion yuan compared with this week [45]. - The issuance success rates of city commercial banks and state - owned banks for certificates of deposit increased slightly compared with last week, while those of rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks decreased, but the issuance success rates of various banks were still near the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened [46]. - The willingness of funds, money funds, and wealth management products to increase the holding of certificates of deposit weakened this week, while the demand of other products for certificates of deposit slightly increased. Joint - stock banks tended to increase the holding of certificates of deposit. The supply - demand relative strength index of certificates of deposit fluctuated and declined, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 percentage point to 42.8%. In terms of different maturities, the supply - demand indexes of 1 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month certificates of deposit rebounded, while those of 3 - month and 1 - year certificates of deposit slightly decreased [57]. III. Bill Market This week, bill rates first rose and then fell. The 3 - month national - share bill rate rose by 7BP to 1.16%, while the 6 - month national - share bill rate fell by 3BP to 1.06% [63]. IV. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market adjusted this week, and the spreads of short - and medium - term credit and perpetual bonds widened slightly. Large banks tended to increase the holding of bonds, mainly due to the increased willingness to hold certificates of deposit and the weakened willingness to reduce the holding of national debt, local debt, commercial paper, and perpetual bonds, but they tended to reduce the holding of 1 - 3 - year policy - financial bonds [65]. - The willingness of trading - type institutions to increase the holding of bonds increased. Among them, the willingness of securities companies to reduce the holding of bonds weakened, and the willingness of other products to increase the holding of bonds increased, while the willingness of fund companies and other institutions to increase the holding of bonds decreased. The willingness of allocation - type institutions to increase the holding of bonds decreased. Among them, the willingness of rural commercial banks to reduce the holding of bonds significantly increased, while the willingness of wealth management products and insurance institutions to increase the holding of bonds increased [65].
流动性与机构行为周度跟踪：跨月资金继续回归政策利率，OMO余额上升无需过度担忧-20250601
信达证券·2025-06-01 13:43