Zijin Mining(601899) 首创证券·2024-02-01 16:00Investment Rating - Buy rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company expects a net profit attributable to the parent company of 21 1 billion yuan in 2023 a year-on-year increase of 5 28% with a non-GAAP net profit of 21 3 billion yuan up 9 06% year-on-year [4] - In Q4 2023 the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4 935 billion yuan a year-on-year increase of 46 2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15 8% [4] - The company achieved record high production of mineral copper and gold in 2023 with mineral copper production reaching 1 01 million tons a year-on-year increase of 11% making it the only Chinese company to surpass 1 million tons of mineral copper production [4] - Mineral gold production reached 67 7 tons a year-on-year increase of 20% while mineral zinc (lead) production was 467 000 tons up 3% year-on-year and mineral silver production was 412 tons up 4% year-on-year [4] - For 2024 the company plans to achieve mineral copper production of 1 11 million tons mineral gold production of 73 5 tons mineral zinc (lead) production of 470 000 tons lithium carbonate equivalent of 25 000 tons mineral silver production of 420 tons and mineral molybdenum production of 9 000 tons [4] - Multiple projects are progressing smoothly including the Kamoa Copper Mine Phase III expansion expected to be operational by Q3 2024 increasing annual copper production to 620 000 tons and the Julong Copper Mine Phase II expansion expected to be operational by 2025 increasing annual copper production capacity to 350 000 tons [4] - The company is also advancing lithium projects in Argentina Tibet and Hunan with total lithium carbonate production capacity expected to reach 120 000-150 000 tons by 2025 [4] - The company is invited to lead the exploration and development of the world-class Manono lithium mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo further solidifying its position as a global lithium leader [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 302 336 billion yuan 322 834 billion yuan and 331 196 billion yuan in 2023 2024 and 2025 respectively with net profits attributable to the parent company of 21 07 billion yuan 25 709 billion yuan and 31 331 billion yuan respectively [4] Financial Data Summary - The company's latest closing price is 12 04 yuan with a one-year high/low of 13 85 yuan and 10 13 yuan respectively [2] - The current P/E ratio is 34 31 and the P/B ratio is 3 07 [2] - The total market capitalization is 316 972 billion yuan with a total share capital of 26 327 billion shares [2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 270 329 billion yuan in 2022 to 302 336 billion yuan in 2023 322 834 billion yuan in 2024 and 331 196 billion yuan in 2025 [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 20 042 billion yuan in 2022 to 21 07 billion yuan in 2023 25 709 billion yuan in 2024 and 31 331 billion yuan in 2025 [5] - EPS is expected to increase from 0 76 yuan in 2022 to 0 80 yuan in 2023 0 98 yuan in 2024 and 1 19 yuan in 2025 [5] Financial Ratios and Performance - The company's gross margin is expected to increase from 15 74% in 2022 to 15 98% in 2023 and 17 59% in 2024 [6] - Net margin is expected to be 7 41% in 2022 6 97% in 2023 and 7 96% in 2024 [6] - ROE is expected to be 19 90% in 2022 16 92% in 2023 and 17 71% in 2024 [6] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 59 33% in 2022 to 48 27% in 2023 and 42 13% in 2024 [6] - The current ratio is expected to improve from 1 12 in 2022 to 1 65 in 2023 and 1 71 in 2024 [6]