XIAOMI(01810) 国盛证券·2024-02-21 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [2][4]. Core Views - The global smartphone market showed signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in Q4 2023, ending a seven-quarter decline. Xiaomi maintained a 13% market share, ranking third globally [1]. - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments are expected to exceed 40 million units in Q4 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of over 20%. The average selling price (ASP) is also anticipated to rise due to the successful launch of the Xiaomi 14 series [1]. - The introduction of the upgraded Xiaomi Surge OS and new AI features is expected to enhance user experience across devices, including tablets and cars [1]. - The launch of the Xiaomi SU7 marks the completion of the "human-vehicle-home ecosystem," with plans for mass production in the first half of 2024 [1]. Financial Summary - For Q4 2023, Xiaomi Group's revenue is projected to be 72.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 10%. Non-GAAP net profit is expected to reach 4 billion RMB, a significant increase of 175% [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2023-2025 are 270.4 billion, 295 billion, and 313.9 billion RMB, with year-on-year changes of -3%, +9%, and +6% respectively. Non-GAAP net profit is projected at 18.4 billion, 15 billion, and 16 billion RMB for the same period [2]. - The report highlights a projected non-GAAP core business net profit of 25 billion, 25.2 billion, and 26 billion RMB for 2023-2025 [2]. Key Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including revenue growth rates and profit margins. For instance, the expected gross margin for smartphones is 14.3% in 2023, with a slight decline projected in subsequent years [3][8]. - The report also includes projections for earnings per share (EPS) and return on equity (ROE), indicating a recovery trajectory for the company [3][8].