Drinda(002865) 中银证券·2024-02-26 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with an expectation that the company's stock price will outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next 6-12 months [1][14]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a profit of 832 million RMB in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 16% [4]. - The company has a leading position in the N-type battery shipment industry, with a total battery production capacity exceeding 49 GW by the end of 2023, showing a year-on-year growth of over 180% [4]. - The company maintains a strong technological advantage in TOPCon battery research and development, with mass production efficiency exceeding 26%, significantly better than the P-type PERC battery's 23.5% conversion efficiency [4]. - The company has fully accounted for impairment losses related to P-type battery production capacity, amounting to approximately 900 million RMB, which will impact the company's earnings [4]. - The company's valuation is considered low, with adjusted earnings per share forecasts for 2023-2025 at 3.66, 4.72, and 5.55 RMB, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 17.9, 13.9, and 11.8 times respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 18,397 million RMB for 2023, with a growth rate of 58.7% [6]. - The EBITDA for 2023 is projected to be 1,173 million RMB, with a slight decrease from the previous year [6]. - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 832 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 16% [6]. Production Capacity and Market Position - The company has expanded its N-type battery production capacity significantly, with a total of 40 GW, and has achieved a cumulative shipment of 29.96 GW in 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of 179.43% [4]. - The company ranks fourth in the industry for total battery shipments and first in N-type battery shipments according to InfoLink data [4]. Technological Advancements - The company is continuously upgrading its TOPCon products, implementing several advanced technologies to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs [4]. - The company has successfully reduced the non-silicon costs of TOPCon batteries through various improvements in production processes [4]. Valuation Adjustments - Due to significant impairment provisions and a temporary decline in battery prices, the company's earnings per share forecasts have been adjusted downwards from previous estimates [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the N-type battery segment, which is expected to maintain high capacity utilization rates and navigate through market cycles effectively [4].