LI AUTO(02015) 东吴证券·2024-02-26 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto [1] Core Views - Li Auto's Q4 2023 performance significantly exceeded expectations, driven by a strong new vehicle cycle and robust sales growth [1][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 41.73 billion yuan in Q4 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 136.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.3% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.658 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2102.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 100.4% [2][3] - The gross margin for Q4 was 23.45%, reflecting an improvement due to cost reductions in the supply chain and increased production efficiency [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 123.85 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.65 billion yuan, resulting in a net margin of 9.4% [3][4] - The company delivered 131,805 vehicles in Q4 2023, a year-on-year increase of 184.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.4% [3] - The average selling price per vehicle decreased to 306,400 yuan, down by 6,650 yuan year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - For Q1 2024, vehicle deliveries are expected to be between 100,000 and 103,000 units, with total revenue projected at 31.25 to 32.19 billion yuan [3] - The launch of new high-end models is anticipated to further enhance sales and profitability in 2024 [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been adjusted upwards to 252.55 billion yuan and 374.76 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The net profit forecast for the same period has been revised to 24.7 billion yuan and 43.78 billion yuan, respectively [4] - Corresponding EPS for 2023 to 2025 is projected at 5.49, 11.64, and 20.63 yuan, with P/E ratios of 21.57, 10.17, and 5.74 [4]