深度报告：工商业制冷龙头，迸发活力更进一步

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [126] Core Views - The company is a leader in the industrial and commercial refrigeration industry, with long-term growth supported by industry beta and company-specific alpha [15] - The company has undergone three state-owned enterprise reforms, which have enhanced its operational vitality [134] - The company's product matrix is comprehensive, covering low-temperature freezing, central air conditioning, environmental heating, energy and chemical equipment, and precision casting [134] - The company has a strong technical reserve, actively developing applications for NH3, CO2, HC, He, and H2O as environmentally friendly refrigerants [22] - The company is expanding into new business areas such as hydrogen energy, CCUS, and natural gas compression equipment [126] Industry Overview - The industrial and commercial refrigeration sectors are experiencing dual drivers of demand and policy support [101] - The domestic refrigeration industry still lags behind international advanced manufacturers in terms of technical level, but progress is being made [16] - China's cold storage capacity is large, but per capita ownership is low, indicating significant room for growth [18] - Policies such as the "14th Five-Year Plan for Cold Chain Logistics Development" are supporting the growth of the commercial refrigeration industry [20] Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 5.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.77%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 565 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.51% [12] - The company's revenue from central air conditioning (Hong Kong) in 2022 was 1.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.84%, and net profit was 114 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.48% [35] - The company's net profit margin for central air conditioning (Hong Kong) in the first half of 2023 was 8.91%, showing continuous improvement in profitability [35] Business Segments - Central Air Conditioning: The company expects revenue from this segment to grow by 25%/20%/18% in 2023-2025 [66] - Heat Exchange Business: Revenue from this segment is expected to grow by 20%/15%/15% in 2023-2025 [74] - Refrigeration Equipment: Revenue from this segment is expected to grow by 30%/15%/15% in 2023-2025 [74] New Business Areas - Hydrogen Energy: The company is actively developing hydrogen compressors, with products such as oil-injected screw hydrogen compressors and fuel cell hydrogen circulation pumps achieving international advanced levels [42] - CCUS: The company is involved in carbon capture, utilization, and storage projects, with significant policy support driving the growth of this sector [45] - Natural Gas: The company's industrial compression/liquefaction business is growing steadily, with equipment applicable to various energy gases such as BOG, pipeline natural gas, and mixed refrigerants [63] - Polysilicon: The company's refrigeration and heat management equipment are in demand for polysilicon production, driven by the growth of the photovoltaic industry [71] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 7.731/8.929/10.297 billion yuan in 2023-2025, with year-on-year growth of 26.7%/15.5%/15.3% [90] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 636/785/942 million yuan in 2023-2025, with year-on-year growth of 49.3%/23.4%/20.1% [90] - The company's gross margin is expected to gradually increase, reaching 24.5%/24.8%/25.1% in 2023-2025 [75] Competitive Advantages - The company has a stable equity structure, with the actual controller being the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Yantai Municipal People's Government [103] - The company has a strong R&D capability, with R&D expenses increasing year by year [24] - The company has a wide range of projects, with its subsidiary Lushang Bingleng covering 26 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) in China [108]