NIO(09866) 海通国际·2024-03-06 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for NIO Inc. with a target price of HK$57.20, reflecting a valuation of 1.0x EV/Sales for 2024 [3][6][12]. Core Insights - NIO's Q4 2023 revenue exceeded expectations at Rmb17.103 billion, representing a 6.5% year-over-year increase, while automotive revenue was Rmb15.439 billion, up 4.6% year-over-year [4][12]. - The company is focusing on short-term investment returns to enhance profitability, with a new sub-brand, Alps, set to launch in Q2 2024, targeting the mainstream market [4][12]. - NIO's R&D and SG&A expenses increased significantly, leading to an adjusted operating loss of Rmb6.059 billion in Q4 2023, indicating ongoing pressure on short-term performance [4][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Q4 2023 revenue: Rmb17.103 billion, gross margin: 7.5% [4][12]. - Full-year 2023 revenue: Rmb55.618 billion, automotive revenue: Rmb49.257 billion, with a gross margin of 5.5% [4][12]. - Expected 2024 vehicle deliveries: 230,000 units, with revenue projections of Rmb76.96 billion for 2024 [6][12]. Product and Market Strategy - The first vehicle from the Alps brand will directly compete with Tesla's Model Y, expected to launch in Q3 2024 [4][12]. - NIO plans to leverage its existing battery swap network to enhance the competitive advantage of the Alps brand [4][12]. - The company aims to establish over 3,310 battery swap stations nationwide by the end of 2024, which is expected to support sales growth [4][12].