2023年业绩同比提升，看好公司长期发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) [1][4][23] Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 showed a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit, with revenue reaching 175.36 billion yuan (up 5.9% YoY) and net profit at 16.82 billion yuan (up 3.6% YoY) [1][5] - The polyurethane downstream demand experienced slight growth in 2023, although prices declined. The company has significant MDI and TDI production capacities, with ongoing expansions planned [1][18] - The overall price of petrochemical products decreased in 2023, influenced by lower raw material prices due to falling crude oil prices and a balanced supply-demand situation in the domestic coal market [1][22] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 42.81 billion yuan (up 21.8% YoY, down 4.7% QoQ) and a net profit of 4.11 billion yuan (up 56.6% YoY, down 0.5% QoQ) [1][5] - The gross margin for Q4 2023 was 16.9% (up 0.9 percentage points YoY, down 0.6 percentage points QoQ), and the net margin was 10.4% (up 2.4 percentage points YoY, up 0.1 percentage points QoQ) [1][5] Market Dynamics - The global polyurethane market faced a mixed scenario with domestic demand recovering gradually while external demand remained weak. However, demand from the refrigerator, automotive, and other sectors led to slight growth [1][18] - The average market prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI products were approximately 20,000 yuan/ton, 16,000 yuan/ton, and 16,500 yuan/ton respectively in 2023 [1][18] Raw Material Prices - Major raw material prices saw a decline in 2023, with pure benzene, coal, propane, and butane prices decreasing by approximately 10.77%, 25.09%, 21.98%, and 21.39% respectively [1][22] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable profit margins as a leading player in the polyurethane industry, with ongoing project advancements. The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 19.38 billion yuan, 22.47 billion yuan, and 23.34 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 6.17 yuan, 7.16 yuan, and 7.43 yuan [1][23]