2023年业绩同比提升，看好公司长期发展

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wanhua Chemical is "Buy" [1][4][12] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.9% in 2023, reaching 175.36 billion yuan, and a net profit of 16.82 billion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a significant revenue increase of 21.8% year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 56.6% [1][5][12] - The polyurethane downstream demand showed slight growth in 2023, although prices decreased. The company has MDI and TDI capacities of 3.1 million tons and 0.95 million tons, respectively, with plans for capacity expansion [1][9] - The overall price of petrochemical products declined in 2023, influenced by falling raw material prices, including a decrease of approximately 10.77% for pure benzene and 25.09% for coal [1][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Wanhua Chemical reported a revenue of 175.36 billion yuan and a net profit of 16.82 billion yuan. The fourth quarter alone generated a revenue of 42.81 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.11 billion yuan [1][5][12] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2023 was 16.9%, and the net profit margin was 10.4%, both showing year-on-year improvements [1][5] Market Dynamics - The global polyurethane market faced a mixed scenario with domestic demand recovering gradually while external demand remained weak. However, demand from the refrigerator, automotive, and other industries contributed to slight growth [1][9] - The average market prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI in 2023 were approximately 20,000 yuan/ton, 16,000 yuan/ton, and 16,500 yuan/ton, respectively [1][9] Raw Material Prices - The prices of key raw materials decreased in 2023, with pure benzene down by 10.77%, coal by 25.09%, and propane and butane by approximately 21.98% and 21.39%, respectively [1][11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable profit margins as it continues to advance new projects. The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 19.38 billion yuan, 22.47 billion yuan, and 23.34 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 6.17 yuan, 7.16 yuan, and 7.43 yuan [1][12]