下调Q1交付指引，聚焦理性发展节奏

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has revised its Q1 2024 delivery guidance downward from 100,000-102,000 units to 76,000-78,000 units, reflecting a focus on sustainable growth rather than aggressive sales targets [2] - The adjustment is attributed to lower-than-expected order sales and a strategic shift to prioritize user value over market competition [2][3] - The company acknowledges missteps in the launch of its first pure electric vehicle, MEGA, and plans to refocus on high-end urban markets with strong EV adoption potential [3] - Despite the setback, the company's L-series models remain strong, with robust sales and improved product capabilities [3] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 27,010 million in 2021 to RMB 312,707 million in 2025, with a CAGR of 85.6% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to turn positive in 2023, reaching RMB 11,650.08 million, and grow to RMB 24,924.43 million by 2025 [2] - EPS is forecasted to increase from -0.15 in 2021 to 11.75 in 2025, reflecting significant profitability improvements [2] - P/E ratios are projected to decline from 22.39 in 2023 to 10.47 in 2025, indicating improving valuation metrics [2] Market and Operational Strategy - The company's market share has risen despite intense competition, driven by strong performance of the L-series and strategic adjustments [3] - The company plans to reduce its focus on price competition and instead enhance operational efficiency and user satisfaction [3] - Future growth will be supported by a strong product pipeline, including new models expected in Q2 and H2 2024 [3] Financial Ratios and Metrics - ROE is expected to improve from -4.49% in 2022 to 25.95% in 2025, reflecting better capital efficiency [7] - Gross margin is projected to stabilize around 21% from 2024 onwards, indicating improved cost management [7] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to rise from 47.78% in 2022 to 65.07% in 2025, reflecting increased leverage for growth [7] Market Data - The stock's closing price is HKD 120.40, with a 52-week range of HKD 86.80 to HKD 185.50 [4] - The company's market capitalization is HKD 212,651.47 million, with a P/B ratio of 4.25 [4]