KUAISHOU(01024) 国信证券·2024-03-24 16:00Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price range of 70-93 HKD [1][2][10] Core Views - Revenue growth remains steady, with profit margins continuing to expand [1][2] - The company's cost control is excellent, with adjusted net profit expected to grow significantly in 2024-2026 [2][10] - The company's commercialization capabilities, particularly in e-commerce and advertising, are expected to drive future growth [2][9] Financial Performance - Q4 2023 revenue reached 32.6 billion CNY, a 15% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 53.1%, up 7.6 percentage points YoY [1][5] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2023 was 4.36 billion CNY, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.4%, up 14 percentage points YoY [1][5] - Domestic revenue in Q4 2023 was 31.7 billion CNY, a 13% YoY increase, while overseas operations incurred a loss of 550 million CNY [1][5] Operational Metrics - Q4 2023 MAU reached 700 million, a 9% YoY increase, while DAU was 383 million, up 4% YoY [1][7] - Total traffic in Q4 2023 decreased by 3% YoY, with daily user time spent declining by 7% YoY to 124.5 minutes [1][7] - The company expects DAU to reach 400 million by the second half of 2024 [1][7] Commercialization - E-commerce GMV in Q4 2023 grew 29% YoY to 403.9 billion CNY, with revenue from e-commerce increasing 36% YoY to 4.3 billion CNY [2][8] - Advertising revenue in Q4 2023 grew 21% YoY to 18.2 billion CNY, driven by strong performance in outbound advertising [2][9] - The company expects e-commerce GMV to grow 25% and advertising revenue to grow over 20% in 2024 [2][9] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow 11.8% in 2024 to 126.8 billion CNY, with adjusted net profit projected to reach 16.5 billion CNY, a 60.2% YoY increase [3][10] - Adjusted EPS is forecasted to increase from 2.47 CNY in 2023 to 3.96 CNY in 2024 [3] - ROE is expected to rise from 13% in 2023 to 22.5% in 2024 [3] Valuation Metrics - The adjusted P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 18.8x in 2023 to 11.8x in 2024 [3] - EV/EBITDA is projected to decline from 29.9x in 2023 to 15.7x in 2024 [3]