KUAISHOU-电商和广告业务有望推动2024年盈利强劲增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology with a target price of HK $72.00, reflecting a 12x P/E for 2025 [1][10]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's e-commerce and advertising businesses are expected to drive strong profit growth in 2024, with an anticipated 67% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit [1][2]. - The company reported a 15% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 2023, reaching RMB 32.6 billion, which met expectations [1][7]. - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 13.4% in Q4 2023, exceeding forecasts [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2023 revenue was RMB 32.6 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year, aligning with predictions [1][7]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2023 was RMB 4.36 billion, reflecting a 37% increase year-on-year [2][7]. - The gross profit margin improved from 51.7% in Q3 2023 to 53.1% in Q4 2023 [2][7]. User Metrics - Daily active users (DAUs) grew by 4% year-on-year to 383 million in Q4 2023, with a target of reaching 400 million DAUs in the second half of 2024 [1][2]. - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased by 29% year-on-year to RMB 404 billion in Q4 2023, driven by a rise in monthly paying users [1][2]. Revenue Streams - E-commerce GMV is projected to grow by 25% year-on-year in 2024, with shelf e-commerce expected to maintain high growth rates [2][8]. - Online marketing revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, supported by strong growth in both internal and external advertising [1][2]. Profitability Outlook - The report forecasts total revenue growth of 12% for 2024, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 17.2 billion, corresponding to a net profit margin of 13.6% [2][8]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to remain stable, benefiting from improved revenue mix and cost efficiency [2][8]. Valuation - The target price of HK$ 72.00 corresponds to a 12x P/E ratio for 2025, factoring in the company's net cash position of RMB 47.9 billion [10][11]. - The report slightly adjusted revenue forecasts for 2024-2025 down by 2% to reflect changes in live-streaming revenue expectations [2][8].