Industry Investment Rating - General equipment: Positive [1] - Special equipment: Neutral [1] - Transportation equipment: Neutral [1] - Construction machinery: Positive [1] - Automation equipment: Positive [1] Core Views - Reducers are primarily used in mechanical transmission and have received significant policy support [1] - The development of humanoid robots is expected to drive demand for reducers [2] - The reducer market is segmented into planetary reducers, harmonic reducers, and RV reducers, each with distinct characteristics and applications [17] Planetary Reducers - The planetary reducer market is concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region, with China expected to see steady growth [21] - In 2022, the global planetary reducer market was valued at 500 million [21] - By 2029, the global market is projected to reach 1.149 billion [21] - Domestic companies are rapidly catching up, with four Chinese firms ranking in the top five in the domestic market [23] Harmonic Reducers - China is the primary market for harmonic reducers, accounting for over 60% of the global market in 2020 [25] - The global harmonic reducer market is highly concentrated, with Hamonaco dominating over 80% of the market [26] - In China, the market is more fragmented, with Hamonaco and Leaderdrive holding 35.50% and 24.70% market shares, respectively [26] - The domestic market is expected to grow rapidly, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 4 billion yuan by 2025 [25] RV Reducers - RV reducers feature a more complex structure and are dominated by Japanese companies [27] - In 2021, the Chinese RV reducer market grew by 50.70% to reach 4.295 billion yuan [29] - By 2027, the global RV reducer market is expected to reach $1.535 billion [29] - Japanese companies, particularly Nabtesco, hold a significant market share, with over 60% globally and 53% in China [30] Downstream Demand - Reducers are the most costly component in industrial robots, accounting for 32% of the total cost [34] - The market for harmonic reducers in industrial robots is expected to grow from 2.669 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.231 billion yuan by 2026 [36] - The market for RV reducers in industrial robots is projected to increase from 8.895 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.77 billion yuan by 2026 [36] - The development of humanoid robots, particularly Tesla's Optimus, is expected to significantly boost reducer demand, with potential market sizes ranging from 2.52 billion yuan to 12.6 billion yuan [40] Related Companies - Leaderdrive: Specializes in harmonic reducers and has seen a decline in performance due to weak demand in 2023 [43] - Zhongda Deli: Focuses on precision reducers and has shown strong growth in 2023, with a 34.53% increase in net profit [46] - Shaft: Engaged in the production of RV reducers and has experienced significant growth, with a 40.20% increase in net profit in 2023 [52]
机械设备行业专题报告：人形机器人发展预期向好，减速器需求有望提升
渤海证券·2024-03-28 16:00