Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for China Jinmao (0817 HK) [1][2] Core Views - Revenue and gross profit under pressure, with net profit turning negative due to significant impairment charges [1] - 2023 total revenue: RMB 72 404 billion, down 13% YoY - Urban operation and property development revenue: RMB 627 81 billion, down 16% YoY - Commercial leasing and retail operations revenue: RMB 18 02 billion, up 16% YoY - Hotel operations revenue: RMB 20 80 billion, up 80% YoY - Urban operation and property development gross margin: 9%, down 4 percentage points YoY - Net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding fair value gains of investment properties): -RMB 6 794 billion vs RMB 9 10 billion in 2022 - Contracted sales remain in the top tier, with successful REITs listing [1] - 2023 contracted sales: RMB 141 2 billion, ranking 13th in the industry - Collection rate: 104%, same as 2022 - Key sales regions: East China (35 6%) and North China (35 4%) - Core first- and second-tier cities account for over 88% of contracted sales - Huaxia Jinmao Shopping Center REIT listed with fund size of RMB 1 068 billion, expected 2024 distribution rate of 4 92% - Land reserve remains sufficient despite slower land acquisition [1] - 2023 new land reserve: 1 99 million sqm, located in core first- and second-tier cities - Undelivered area as of Dec 2023: 83 69 million sqm - Debt structure optimization continues, with all "three red lines" in green zone [1] - Average financing cost: 4 3% - Proportion of debt due within one year: 19% - Average debt maturity: 5 62 years - Total bond issuance in 2023: RMB 18 75 billion Financial Forecasts - Revenue and profit projections [1][2][5] - 2024E revenue: RMB 81 853 billion, +13 1% YoY - 2025E revenue: RMB 89 916 billion, +9 9% YoY - 2026E revenue: RMB 97 825 billion, +8 8% YoY - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 1 001 billion - 2025E net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 1 513 billion - 2026E net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 1 926 billion - Valuation metrics [1][2][5] - 2024E PE: 7X - 2025E PE: 5X - 2026E PE: 4X - PB ratio: 0 2X (2023-2026) - Key financial ratios [5] - Gross margin: 12 46% (2023A), 14 84% (2024E), 16 14% (2025E), 16 68% (2026E) - Net margin: -9 53% (2023A), 1 22% (2024E), 1 68% (2025E), 1 97% (2026E) - ROE: -17 55% (2023A), 2 48% (2024E), 3 62% (2025E), 4 41% (2026E) - Asset-liability ratio: 73 02% (2023A), 73 94% (2024E), 74 49% (2025E), 74 89% (2026E)
2023年年报点评：公司计提大额减值，提质增效再出发