Drinda(002865) 申万宏源·2024-04-02 16:00Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][81]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in TOPCon battery technology, poised to benefit significantly from the upcoming N-type era. The effective capacity of N-type TOPCon batteries reached approximately 500GW by the end of 2023, with a global demand for nearly 500GW of photovoltaic installations expected in 2024, indicating no oversupply in advanced production capacity [9][81]. - The company has optimized its production structure by fully impairing its P-type PERC battery assets, allowing it to focus on its leading TOPCon production capacity of 40GW, which is expected to see substantial growth in shipments in 2024 [4][81]. Summary by Sections Market Data - As of April 2, 2024, the closing price is 64.4 CNY, with a market capitalization of 14,328 million CNY. The price-to-book ratio is 3.1, and the one-year high/low is 161/49.97 CNY [2]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 1,061 million CNY, 1,409 million CNY, and 1,788 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a 2024 PE ratio of 14 times, while the industry average PE is projected at 16 times [5][82]. Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue is expected to grow from 18,657 million CNY in 2023 to 29,115 million CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.6%. The gross margin for TOPCon battery business is projected to stabilize at 12% from 2024 to 2026 [6][82]. Production Capacity and Market Position - The company has a total production capacity of 49.5GW, with 9.5GW for PERC and 40GW for TOPCon batteries. The shipment volume for TOPCon batteries is expected to increase significantly, with projections of 40GW, 55GW, and 70GW for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [54][81]. Global Expansion - The company is actively expanding its international market presence, with overseas sales increasing from 0.29% to approximately 4.69% in 2023, aiming for over 10% in 2024. Plans for a Hong Kong listing are also underway to facilitate overseas capital operations [10][60]. Technological Advancements - The company has introduced the "MoNo 1" series of N-type batteries, which utilize advanced technologies to enhance production efficiency from 25% to 26% by the end of 2023. This series is expected to reduce balance of system (BOS) costs by 3.2% and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) by 2.0% for downstream customers [57][13].