CMES(601872) 国泰君安·2024-04-07 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.19 CNY [1][2] Core Views - The company's diversified business segments ensure stable long-term profitability across cycles [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising and sustained oil shipping market in the coming years [1] - The company's dividend payout ratio has increased to 40%, reflecting its focus on shareholder returns and market value management [1] - The company's oil shipping segment saw a 274% YoY increase in net profit in 2023, while the dry bulk and container shipping segments experienced a decline [1] - The company's roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) shipping segment achieved a 200% YoY growth in net profit, with promising future growth potential [1] Business Segments - The company operates in multiple segments including oil shipping, dry bulk, container shipping, LNG, and RoRo shipping [1] - The oil shipping segment is expected to see continued growth due to high capacity utilization and favorable market conditions [1] - The dry bulk segment is anticipated to show profit growth in Q2 2024, driven by rising freight rates [1] - The RoRo shipping segment is expected to maintain strong growth momentum [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 4.837 billion CNY in 2023, a 5% YoY decrease, largely due to the decline in dry bulk and container shipping profits [1] - The company's net profit is forecasted to reach 7.252 billion CNY in 2024, 8.016 billion CNY in 2025, and 8.509 billion CNY in 2026 [1] - The company's EPS is expected to increase from 0.59 CNY in 2023 to 0.89 CNY in 2024 [1] - The company's operating margin is projected to rise from 21.8% in 2023 to 25.6% in 2024 [1] Market and Industry Outlook - The global oil shipping market is expected to remain robust in 2024, with steady growth in demand [1] - The company's VLCC fleet is operating at near capacity, with TCE rates expected to remain strong [1] - The dry bulk shipping market is expected to see improved profitability in 2024, driven by rising freight rates [1] - The company's diversified fleet structure provides resilience against market fluctuations [1] Shareholder Returns - The company increased its dividend payout ratio from 30% to 40% in 2023, with a dividend yield of approximately 5% [1] - The company's focus on shareholder returns and market value management is expected to continue [1]