业务量持续高增，成长路径延续评

Investment Rating - Maintained "Overweight" rating for J&T Express-W (01519) [1] Core Views - J&T Express continues to experience high growth in business volume, with a clear growth trajectory [1] - The company's domestic and cross-border business expansion, coupled with cost optimization, supports its growth potential [6] Business Performance - In 2023H2, J&T Express achieved a domestic business volume of 8.896 billion parcels, a YoY increase of 38.49% [2] - Southeast Asia and new markets saw business volumes of 1.802 billion and 147 million parcels, respectively, with YoY growth of 38.78% and 255.31% [2] - In 2024Q1, the company's total business volume reached 5.032 billion parcels, a YoY increase of 48.5%, with Southeast Asia, China, and new markets contributing 1.026 billion, 3.942 billion, and 64 million parcels, respectively [3] - Market share in Southeast Asia, China, and new markets reached 25.4%, 11.6%, and 6.0% in 2023, with YoY increases of 2.9pcts, 0.7pcts, and 4.4pcts, respectively [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, the domestic segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $31 million, turning positive for the first time [5] - Southeast Asia's adjusted EBITDA reached$376 million, a YoY increase of 13.3%, while the new market segment recorded an adjusted EBITDA loss of $82 million [5] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted at$11.509 billion, $14.033 billion, and$16.558 billion, respectively [6] - Net profit is expected to improve significantly, with forecasts of -$441 million,$173 million, and $342 million for 2024-2026 [6] Cost Optimization and Network Expansion - Unit costs in Southeast Asia, China, and new markets decreased by 11.96%, 14.87%, and 31.25% YoY in 2023 [5] - The company operates over 6,100干线 vehicles in China, including 3,700 self-owned vehicles, and 3,300干线 vehicles in Southeast Asia, with 1,300 self-owned vehicles [5] - Sales, administrative, and general expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 6.64pcts to 8.08% in 2H2023 [5] Market Data - Current stock price: HKD 10.50 [3] - 52-week price range: HKD 9.80-16.54 [3] - Market capitalization: HKD 92.52775 billion [3] - Average daily trading volume: HKD 170.05 million [3] Growth Prospects - The company's innovative agent model and cost optimization in domestic markets, combined with overseas market红利, are expected to sustain growth [6] - Deepening cooperation with cross-border e-commerce platforms like SHEIN is likely to drive further business volume growth [6]