业绩稳增，分红提升，新项目拓展加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 16.0 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 15.50 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 39.54 billion CNY for 2023, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.9% to 3.09 billion CNY. In Q4 alone, revenue reached 10.34 billion CNY, up 2.1% year-on-year, and net profit surged by 75.5% to 0.95 billion CNY [1][2]. - The company experienced positive growth in cultural paper, while revenue from corrugated box paper and pulp products declined. Non-coated paper and coated paper revenues were 13.31 billion CNY and 3.51 billion CNY, reflecting increases of 22.6% and 10.4% respectively. Conversely, revenues from kraft linerboard and corrugated base paper fell to 9.81 billion CNY and 0.05 billion CNY, down 5.7% and 51.6% respectively [1]. - The company has increased its dividend payout from 2 CNY to 3 CNY per 10 shares, raising the dividend payout ratio from 19.9% to 27.2% [1]. - The company is accelerating the expansion of new projects, including a significant investment of up to 7 billion CNY for a new production line in Nanning, which is expected to enhance product structure and expand market channels in southern China [1]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.3 CNY, 1.6 CNY, and 1.8 CNY per share, respectively, with a reasonable valuation based on a 12x PE ratio for 2024, leading to a target price of 16.0 CNY per share [1][2]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company achieved an EBITDA of 6.25 billion CNY, with a projected EBITDA growth of 11.8% in 2024 [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 11.8%, with expectations for gradual improvement in the coming years [2][8]. - The company's total assets reached 50.55 billion CNY in 2023, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 48.3%, indicating a decrease of 3.48 percentage points year-on-year [1][8].