2023年年报点评：量增价跌盈利触底，韩国基地布局加速

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 22.657 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 24.78%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 581 million, down 57.07% YoY [2] - In Q4 2023, revenue was RMB 4.083 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 62.34%, with a net loss of RMB 35 million [2] - The company's ternary cathode material shipments reached approximately 100,000 tons in 2023, an 11% YoY increase, with a global market share exceeding 10% [2] - The average selling price of ternary cathode materials in 2023 was RMB 210,800 per ton, a 31.09% YoY decrease due to a significant drop in raw material prices [2] - Gross margin for 2023 was 8.58%, down 0.68 percentage points YoY, while net margin was 2.77%, down 1.79 percentage points YoY [2] - The company's Korean base has completed the construction of 20,000 tons/year of high-nickel cathode capacity and initiated the second phase of 40,000 tons/year ternary material and 20,000 tons/year lithium iron manganese phosphate projects [2] - The company has made significant progress in solid-state battery materials, with semi-solid-state battery cathode materials already applied in end-customer vehicles with a range of 1,000 km [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be RMB 21.659 billion, RMB 24.509 billion, and RMB 28.073 billion, respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be RMB 720 million, RMB 999 million, and RMB 1.395 billion, respectively [7] - EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be RMB 1.49, RMB 2.06, and RMB 2.88, respectively [7] - ROE (diluted) for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 7.77%, 9.87%, and 12.32%, respectively [7] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 22X, 16X, and 11X, respectively [7] Market and Valuation - The company's current market capitalization is RMB 15.8 billion, with a total share capital of 484 million shares [3] - The stock's 1-year low/high range is RMB 23.80 to RMB 73.73 [3] - The company's P/B ratio for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 1.7X, 1.6X, and 1.4X, respectively [7] Industry and Company Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in overseas markets, particularly due to its overseas capacity layout that meets IRA tax credit requirements [2] - The company's profitability is expected to recover as raw material prices have bottomed out and capacity utilization is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season in Q2 2024 [2] - The company has a leading position in high-nickel cathode materials and is actively expanding its product portfolio, including solid-state battery materials, lithium iron manganese phosphate, and sodium-ion batteries [2]