Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 1.91 per share based on a 4x price-to-sales (PS) valuation for 2024 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue decline of 6.1% year-on-year to HKD 868 million in 2023, primarily due to changes in customer and product mix leading to a decrease in average transaction prices and pricing strategy adjustments. The gross margin fell by 23.1 percentage points to 60.7% [2][8]. - Operating losses reached HKD 341 million in 2023, with a loss margin of 39.2%. The net loss attributable to shareholders was HKD 441 million, with an adjusted net loss of HKD 288 million [2][8]. - The core enterprise cloud segment showed resilient growth, with a 4.0% increase in revenue to HKD 524 million, driven by an increase in the number of supply chain assets processed. The number of core enterprise clients rose by 51% to 604 [2][8]. - The financial institution cloud segment experienced a revenue decline of 17.4% to HKD 300 million, primarily due to a downturn in the asset-backed securities (ABS) market [2][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Growth - The company expects stable growth in transaction volumes from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of HKD 1,005 million, HKD 1,116 million, and HKD 1,273 million, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15.8%, 11.0%, and 14.1% respectively [3][8]. - Total transaction volumes are expected to reach HKD 4,035 billion, HKD 4,862 billion, and HKD 5,900 billion for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.3%, 20.5%, and 21.4% [8]. Profitability Forecast - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of HKD 250 million in 2024 to a profit of HKD 1.4 million in 2026, indicating a recovery trajectory [3][8]. - The overall gross margin is expected to gradually recover to 66.3%, 66.7%, and 67.9% over the forecast period [8]. Market Position and Valuation - The company is positioned as a leading supply chain financial technology SaaS provider in China, with ongoing penetration into multiple industry sectors and optimization of customer and business structures [2][8]. - The report references comparable companies in the SaaS sector, noting their revenue growth rates and corresponding PS ratios, which support the valuation of the company at 4x PS for 2024 [8][13].
业务量回暖，不利因素逐渐消化，业绩有望改善