爱玛科技23年报点评：关注公司底部向上弹性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is showing signs of bottoming out with upward elasticity, supported by a new round of equity incentives launched in February 2024, aiming for a revenue or net profit CAGR of 20% from 2024 to 2026 [2][3] - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in competition, with an improvement in average selling price (ASP) and a favorable shift in product and channel structure [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 3.58 billion yuan (up 0.2% YoY), with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 320 million yuan (down 35% YoY) [2] - The full-year revenue for 2023 was 21.04 billion yuan (up 1% YoY), with net profit attributable to the parent company remaining flat at 1.88 billion yuan [2][3] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 5.34 yuan for every 10 shares, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 40% [2] Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to 24.35 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 15.8% increase YoY, with net profit projected at 2.30 billion yuan (up 22.1% YoY) [3][4] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 17.5% in 2024, while the net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 9.4% [5] - The company aims for revenue of 30.27 billion yuan and net profit of 3.33 billion yuan by 2026, with respective growth rates of 10.5% and 19.3% [4][5] Market Position and Industry Outlook - The recent government initiatives to promote electric bicycle trade-in programs are expected to benefit the industry by enhancing market concentration [2][3] - The company is focusing on consolidating its domestic market while expanding overseas, which is anticipated to restore growth confidence [2][3]