一季度高基数背景下短期受压，合同消化迎接新一轮需求释放

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [15][34]. Core Insights - The company experienced short-term pressure in Q1 due to a high base from the previous year, but the gross profit margin remains high, and the overall performance for the year is expected to maintain a medium to high growth rate [4][15]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 643 million, a decrease of 2.28% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 209 million, down 4.04% year-on-year [6]. - The company is leveraging its core technology in large forging and has a multi-model coverage to strengthen its risk resistance, indicating that the impact of a single model's slowdown on overall performance is limited [15][24]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the total revenue is projected at 2,494 million, with expectations to grow to 3,016 million in 2024, 3,784 million in 2025, and 4,769 million in 2026 [17]. - The gross profit for 2023 is estimated at 1,090 million, with a gross profit margin of 44%, expected to remain stable at 44% in 2024 and 2025, and slightly increase to 45% in 2026 [17]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 815 million in 2023, increasing to 1,016 million in 2024, 1,279 million in 2025, and 1,630 million in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 25%, 26%, and 27% respectively [24]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively preparing for downstream demand recovery, as indicated by a significant increase in prepaid expenses, which rose by 26.03% year-on-year to 12 million at the end of Q1 2024 [24]. - The company’s construction projects are continuously improving, with the total construction in progress reaching 355 million at the end of 2023, indicating ongoing capacity expansion [24]. - The company maintains a high level of profitability despite the trend towards lower-cost equipment in the industry, showcasing its competitive edge in high-value-added products [24].