2024年一季报点评：归母净利润同比+31%，结构优化逻辑兑现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hangcha Group (603298) [1] Core Views - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31% to 380 million yuan, indicating that the logic of structural optimization is being realized [1][2] - The forklift industry saw a total sales volume of 320,000 units in Q1 2024, up 11% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 210,000 units growing by 5% and export sales of 110,000 units increasing by 25% [2] - The company is shifting focus towards high-margin and high-value balance heavy forklifts, which are more widely applicable and have a stronger correlation with overall economic activity [2][3] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for Q1 2024 was 20.6%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.6%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s operating expenses ratio was 10.8%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points, with slight increases in sales and R&D expense ratios due to enhanced overseas market channel development [3] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 2.05 billion, 2.43 billion, and 2.93 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times [3][9] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 30.91 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 28.92 billion yuan [5] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 3.22 and a one-year price range of 18.56 to 33.50 yuan [5][6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from domestic environmental and equipment renewal policies, with a projected increase in the penetration rate of lithium battery forklifts [3] - The overseas market remains stable, with leading companies like Toyota and Kion showing a rebound in new orders [3] - The report emphasizes the ongoing optimization of the company’s business structure, with a focus on high-margin electric heavy vehicles and an increasing share of overseas business [3]