2025年工程机械行业走出了强势复苏行情，全年指数涨幅达33.14%，大幅跑赢沪深300，成为机械板块中的领涨主线。进入2026年，行业在智能物流装备 爆发、矿山机械升级与海外市场拓展的三重利好下，有望延续"规模稳增、结构优化、效益跃升"的高质量发展格局。 营运效率也同步优化，存货周转天数同比持续下降，营业周期压缩3.73%，即使存货金额随业务规模扩张增长9.35%，周转效率仍稳步提升，显示行业在 规模扩张与库存管理间实现了良性平衡。 01 2025工程机械行业复盘 02 2025年工程机械行业的复苏不仅体现在行情上，更扎根于扎实的基本面。前三季度行业营业总收入达3036.12亿元，同比增长10.84%；归母净利润294.38 亿元，同比增幅高达19.72%，盈利能力逐季度提升，销售毛利率从一季度的24.86%攀升至前三季度的25.48%。 重点关注方向 首先是政策+需求+技术三重共振的智能物流装备。它也将成为2026年行业最具潜力的增长点，政策支持、需求爆发与技术升级形成清晰的价值共振，推 动行业从劳动密集型向技术密集型加速转型。 电商需求的持续旺盛是核心驱动力。2025年中国电商物流指数自3月起连续8个月 ...

Group 1 - The engineering machinery sector increased by 1.95% on February 4, with Hengli Hydraulic leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] - Key stocks in the engineering machinery sector showed significant price increases, with Hengli Hydraulic rising by 4.53% to a closing price of 119.87 [1] Group 2 - The engineering machinery sector experienced a net outflow of 384 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 185 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for major stocks varied, with Huadong Heavy Machinery seeing a trading volume of 468,700 shares and a closing price of 7.00, up 4.17% [2] - The overall market sentiment reflected mixed movements, with some stocks like Weiman Sealing and Hailun Zhe showing declines of 2.79% and 2.03% respectively [2] Group 3 - Major stocks such as Huadong Heavy Machinery and Tongli Co. experienced differing net inflows from institutional and retail investors, indicating varied investor sentiment [3] - The net inflow for Tongli Co. was 22.20 million yuan from retail investors, while it faced a net outflow of 32.39 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - The data indicates a complex interaction between institutional and retail investors within the engineering machinery sector, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks [3]

Market Overview - The engineering machinery sector experienced a decline of 2.26% on February 2, with Zhigao Machinery leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Zhigao Machinery (code: 920101) saw a significant drop of 9.01%, closing at 42.33 with a trading volume of 31,200 shares and a transaction value of 136 million [2] - Other notable declines included Fushite (code: 301446) down 7.31% and Tietuo Machinery (code: 920706) down 7.08% [2] - Conversely, Construction Machinery (code: 600984) increased by 3.52%, closing at 4.12 with a transaction value of 275 million [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The engineering machinery sector experienced a net outflow of 261 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 68.44 million [2] - Notably, speculative funds had a net inflow of 329 million [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Zhongji United (code: 605305) had a net outflow of 33.05 million from institutional investors, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 17.02 million [3] - Iron Construction Machinery (code: 688425) reported a net inflow of 12.55 million from institutional investors and 21.61 million from speculative funds [3] - Other stocks like Longling Hydraulic (code: 605389) and Tuoshan Heavy Industry (code: 001226) also showed varying net inflows and outflows across different investor categories [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the unmanned forklift industry, indicating a high growth potential with low penetration at this stage [5][80]. Core Insights - The unmanned forklift industry is supported by policies and technological advancements, driving growth through increased demand in logistics and labor shortages [5][80]. - The market for unmanned forklifts is expanding, with a significant decrease in product prices from approximately 600,000 yuan per unit in 2018 to about 204,100 yuan per unit by 2024, driven by scale production and increased competition [5][38]. - The report highlights a dual-driven demand for unmanned forklifts, stemming from the expansion of the logistics industry and structural changes in demand, alongside a shortage of labor [5][66]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Support and Technological Advancements - Unmanned forklifts integrate forklift and AGV/AMR technologies, enabling automated material handling across various production scenarios [5][13]. - National and local policies are fostering the development of unmanned forklifts, emphasizing their inclusion in key research and development areas [5][26]. 2. Market Share and Global Positioning - The market share of unmanned forklifts is increasing, with a notable focus on both domestic and international markets, highlighting their core position in the AGV/AMR sector [5][43]. - The report notes that unmanned forklifts accounted for 30.95% of new product releases in the AGV/AMR category in 2025, underscoring their significance [5][43]. 3. Demand Drivers - The logistics industry's growth and evolving operational models are significantly increasing the demand for unmanned forklifts, which are seen as essential for enhancing efficiency and reducing labor costs [5][57]. - Labor shortages, driven by demographic changes and rising labor costs, are accelerating the adoption of unmanned forklifts [5][66]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Hangcha Group (603298), Anhui Heli (600761), Zhongli Group (603194), and Noli Forklift (603611) as potential investment opportunities in the unmanned forklift sector [5][80].

杭叉集团：叉车龙头走向全球，无人叉车、人形机器人开启新成长纪元【长江机械-赵智勇团队】 此前我们发布深度报告《杭叉集团：叉车龙头走向全球，无人叉车、人形机器人开启新成长纪元》，看好公司多 维增长点： 当前降息背景下，海外欧美资本品需求有望修复，新兴市场有望受益产能转移，公司叉车主业有望充分受益。 公司持续完善全球网络布局，25年以来海外多个子公司相继开张运营，助力公司海外份额持续提升。< 公司持续完善全球网络布局，25年以来海外多个子公司相继开张运营，助力公司海外份额持续提升。 近年来叉车行业持续向新能化转型，如我国电动叉车销量占比从2010年23%持续提升至2024年的74%。 公司纵深布局锂电、氢能源产品，研发投入力度持续加大，有望凭借新能源产品优势持续提升全球市场地位。 公司在智能板块具备深厚的技术积累和深度的市场布局，通过内生外延不断强化智能化业务综合竞争力。 25年7月收购国自机器人强化技术优势，25年10月全球首次发布杭叉X1系列物流人形机器人，标志着公司完成了从 传统工业车辆制造商向全场景智能物流解决方案提供商的战略升级，未来无人叉车、人形机器人有望助力智能板 块实现跨越式增长。 杭叉集团：叉车 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid growth and potential of the unmanned forklift industry in China, highlighting both advantages and disadvantages of unmanned forklifts [1][4]. Group 1: Product Advantages and Disadvantages - Unmanned forklifts are efficient, flexible, save labor costs, and allow for real-time monitoring [3]. - However, they are more expensive than traditional forklifts, have limited applicability in complex environments, and incur higher maintenance costs [3]. Group 2: Market Landscape - There are over 100 companies involved in the unmanned forklift sector in China, including established traditional forklift manufacturers and emerging robotics companies [4]. - Key players include Hangcha Group, Anhui Heli, and new entrants like Future Robotics and Hikvision Robotics, each offering a variety of unmanned forklift products [5]. Group 3: Sales and Market Size - Unmanned forklift sales in China are on a rapid upward trend, reaching approximately 5,000 units in 2020, surpassing 10,000 units in 2022, and projected to reach 24,500 units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.64% [6]. - The market size for unmanned forklifts in China is around 5 billion yuan, with the industry expected to exceed 4 billion yuan in 2023 and reach approximately 5 billion yuan in 2024 [8]. Group 4: Industry Penetration - The current penetration rate of unmanned forklifts in China is relatively low, estimated at 1.91% for 2024, which is an increase of 0.24% from 2023 [9][12]. - Future growth in penetration is anticipated as the logistics and industrial manufacturing sectors develop and technology advances [9].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that Jinchuang Group (603680) expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 540 million to 620 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 78.77% to 105.25% [5] - The company anticipates a non-recurring net profit of 560 million to 640 million yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 72.72% to 97.39% year-on-year [5] - The demand for rail transit vehicles is expected to rise due to large-scale tenders for the Fuxing high-speed trains, with the company benefiting from increased delivery volumes and improved product structure leading to higher overall gross margins [5][6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The mechanical equipment industry is projected to see growth in both domestic and international forklift sales, with total sales for 2025 expected to reach 1.4518 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [9] - Domestic forklift sales are expected to grow by 12.6% in 2025, driven by a recovery in demand linked to the manufacturing and logistics sectors [10] - The report notes that the overall forklift market is showing stable growth, with expectations for this trend to continue into 2026 [10] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook for Jinchuang Group, projecting net profits of 551 million, 587 million, and 665 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.70, 0.75, and 0.85 yuan, and PE ratios of 23X, 21X, and 19X respectively, recommending a "buy" rating [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological barriers and a comprehensive product range for the company to strengthen its position in the rail transit vehicle supply market [8]

Group 1: Industry Overview - In December 2025, the overall forklift sales reached 111,400 units, a slight increase of 0.03% year-on-year [1] - Domestic sales accounted for 63,800 units, showing a decline of 5.17%, while overseas sales were 47,600 units, reflecting a growth of 7.97% [1] - Cumulative forklift sales for 2025 totaled 1,451,800 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [1] Group 2: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic forklift sales increased by 12.6% in 2025, driven by a recovery in demand linked to the manufacturing and logistics sectors [2] - The manufacturing PMI new orders index reached 50.8 in December 2025, indicating a strong growth of 1.6 percentage points month-on-month [2] - The total social logistics volume in November 2025 grew by 5.0% year-on-year, reflecting steady growth in logistics demand [2] Group 3: Export Market Insights - Forklift exports grew by 13.4% year-on-year in 2025, indicating a positive trend in overseas demand [2] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders index was at 49.0 in December 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.4 percentage points [2] - The engineering machinery export trade value reached $6.417 billion in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.2% [2] Group 4: Company Performance - Hangcha Group expects a net profit of between 2.113 billion and 2.315 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.00% to 15.00% [3] - The growth is attributed to the company's ability to capture market demand, with a focus on electric forklifts and high-value products [3] - The company is expanding its presence in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Brazil, and the Middle East, enhancing its global sales revenue [3] Group 5: Strategic Developments - Hangcha Group established a Southeast Asia service center to enhance local operations and service capabilities [4] - The service center aims to improve service coverage and response efficiency in the region [4] - A manufacturing base in Thailand is expected to commence operations in 2026, marking an important expansion of the company's global manufacturing system [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyou Securities highlights that Hangcha Group has demonstrated stable performance and is awaiting the ramp-up of its embodied intelligence products [1] Financial Performance - The company has effectively seized market demand growth opportunities, resulting in a favorable increase in operating revenue alongside continuous profit growth due to its core products' strong technological foundation and advantages in large-scale production [1] Product Structure - The sales proportion of electric forklifts continues to rise, leading to further optimization of the product structure, with high-value-added products such as new energy forklifts and large-tonnage forklifts becoming the main drivers of growth [1] Market Expansion - In addition to consolidating its traditional markets in Europe and the United States, the company is accelerating its expansion into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Brazil, and the Middle East, showcasing the effectiveness of its globalization strategy [1] Intelligent Development - The company is gradually improving its layout in the field of intelligence, with data-driven development of embodied intelligence [1] Valuation - The projected PE valuations for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 15.88, 14.46, and 13.37 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The forklift industry is experiencing stable growth driven by the recovery of manufacturing and logistics demand, with domestic and overseas sales both increasing in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - Forklift sales in 2025 are projected to reach 145.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, with domestic sales at 90.68 million units (up 12.6%) and export sales at 54.50 million units (up 13.4%) [1] - The domestic forklift market is closely linked to the manufacturing and logistics sectors, with a positive correlation to the manufacturing PMI and social logistics growth [2] - The overall forklift sales in December 2025 are expected to be 11.14 million units, with domestic sales at 6.38 million units (down 5.17%) and overseas sales at 4.76 million units (up 7.97%) [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Hangcha Group anticipates a net profit of 21.13 billion to 23.15 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5% to 15% due to strong market demand and improved product structure [3] - The company is focusing on electric forklifts and high-value products, which are becoming the main drivers of growth [3] - Hangcha Group is expanding its global presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, Brazil, and the Middle East, with an increasing share of overseas sales [3][4] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Hangcha Group established a Southeast Asia service center to enhance local operations and service capabilities, marking a significant milestone in its regional development strategy [4] - The service center aims to provide comprehensive support, including spare parts, technical assistance, and after-sales service, improving efficiency and reliability [4] - The company's manufacturing base in Thailand is expected to commence operations in 2026, further expanding its global manufacturing capabilities [4]