HIKVISION(002415) 海通证券·2024-04-24 05:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company has initially completed its AIoT strategic transformation, targeting a net profit of 16-17 billion for 2024. In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 89.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.42%, and a net profit of 14.11 billion, up 9.89% year-on-year [4][8] - The company expects domestic economic stabilization, with performance likely to show a trend of lower results in the first half and higher results in the second half of 2024 [4] - The company is optimistic about the EBG business opportunities, while the PBG business may see some revenue decline but will not disappear due to ongoing government needs [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 89.34 billion, with a net profit of 14.11 billion and a gross margin of 44.44% [4][6] - For Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 17.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.98%, and a net profit of 1.92 billion, up 5.78% year-on-year [4] - The company forecasts revenue growth of 12.0% in 2024, reaching 100.03 billion, and a net profit of 16.53 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 17.2% [6][11] Business Segment Analysis - The Public Service Business Group (PBG) generated revenue of 15.35 billion in 2023, down 4.84%, while the Enterprise Business Group (EBG) saw revenue of 17.84 billion, up 8.12% [4][5] - The company is focusing on enhancing its innovation business, which achieved revenue of 18.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.11% [4][7] Strategic Initiatives - The company is increasing its investment in overseas markets, establishing 80 branches in over 150 countries and regions to provide localized services [7][8] - The company has launched the "Guanlan" large model, which is expected to enhance its capabilities in artificial intelligence and digital transformation [8][9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1000.29 billion, 1132.56 billion, and 1313.62 billion from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 165.34 billion, 193.57 billion, and 228.40 billion [8][11] - The report suggests a dynamic PE of 24-28 times for 2024, with a reasonable value range of 42.53-49.62 yuan over the next six months [8][10]