SG Micro Corp(300661) 光大证券·2024-04-24 06:32Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook despite short-term challenges [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 was under pressure due to weak global semiconductor demand, with a significant year-on-year decline in net profit [1] - However, Q4 2023 showed a notable improvement, driven by a recovery in consumer electronics demand [1] - The company is expected to benefit from downstream customer demand and product portfolio expansion in H1 2024, potentially leading to better-than-expected performance [1] - The company is a leading domestic analog platform, continuously expanding its product offerings, with over 4,600 products available for sale as of H1 2023 [2] - The company's R&D efforts are yielding high-end, multifunctional, and complex products, positioning it for future growth as downstream demand recovers [2] Financial Performance - The company's 2023 net profit is forecasted to be between 262 million and 332 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 70%-62% [1] - Q4 2023 net profit is estimated to be between 120 million and 190 million yuan, showing significant sequential improvement [1] - Revenue growth in 2023 is expected to decline by 17.46%, but a recovery is projected in 2024 and 2025 with growth rates of 24.92% and 25.15%, respectively [3] - The company's ROE (diluted) is expected to rebound from 8.52% in 2023 to 14.25% in 2024 and 16.63% in 2025 [3] Market and Industry Analysis - The consumer electronics market is gradually recovering, with global smartphone shipments increasing by 7.8% year-on-year in Q1 2024 [1] - The industrial control and communication markets remain under pressure, with a recovery expected in H2 2024 [1] - The company's downstream applications are primarily in consumer electronics and industrial sectors, with consumer electronics accounting for approximately 50% of revenue in H1 2023 [1] Valuation and Forecast - The report revises down the company's net profit forecasts for 2023-2025 to 313 million, 602 million, and 825 million yuan, respectively, reflecting adjustments of -60%, -44%, and -38% [2] - The company's PE ratios for 2023-2025 are projected at 101X, 52X, and 38X, respectively [2] - The company's PB ratios for 2023-2025 are estimated at 8.6X, 7.4X, and 6.3X, respectively [7] Product and R&D - The company launched over 300 new products with independent intellectual property rights in H1 2023, including high-precision voltage references and advanced DC-DC buck chips [2] - The company has 909 R&D personnel, with 34% having over 10 years of experience in the integrated circuit industry [2]