Tianrun Industry(002283) 广发证券·2024-04-25 12:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.93 CNY per share, based on a 19x PE for 2024 [6][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.63 billion CNY in Q1 2024, a slight decrease of 2.27% year-on-year, with net profits (attributable to shareholders) of 0.93 billion CNY and 0.94 billion CNY before and after adjustments, respectively, reflecting declines of 11.8% and 5.1% [2][12]. - The company's gross margin was 24.3%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.6%, down 1.0 percentage points, primarily due to a fair value change loss of -0.6 billion CNY [14][2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic crankshaft and connecting rod market, benefiting from industry recovery and international expansion, with new business segments contributing to growth [25][22]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company experienced a revenue of 9.63 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 2.27%. Heavy truck production increased by 8.38%, while light truck production decreased by 1.59% [12][2]. - The company’s gross margin was reported at 24.3%, with a net profit margin of 9.6%, impacted by fair value changes [14][2]. Business Outlook - The company is the largest producer of commercial vehicle crankshafts and connecting rods in China, holding a 60% market share in heavy-duty engine crankshafts and 42% in diesel light-duty engine crankshafts [22][5]. - The company is expanding into new business areas such as air suspension and electric steering systems, with significant product development in 2023 [22][24]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at 0.47, 0.56, and 0.67 CNY per share, respectively, with a consistent target value of 8.93 CNY per share [25][3].