Sanquan Food (002216) 民生证券·2024-04-28 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company faces short-term revenue pressure but expects reform results to show in 2024 [1] - Traditional rice and flour products are under pressure, while the B-end market continues to expand [2] - Gross margin pressure has dragged down profitability, with a year-on-year decline in non-GAAP net profit margin [2] - Operational reforms are progressing in an orderly manner, with expectations for results to emerge [2] - Revenue and net profit are expected to grow steadily from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenue of 7.22/7.47/7.79 billion yuan and net profit of 759/779/813 million yuan [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 7.056 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.09%, and net profit of 749 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.55% [2] - In Q4 2023, revenue was 1.641 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.83%, and net profit was 197 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.63% [2] - In Q1 2024, revenue was 2.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.01%, and net profit was 230 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.76% [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.00 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 440 million yuan, accounting for 58.66% of net profit [2] Market and Product Analysis - In 2023, the catering market revenue was 1.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.93%, while the retail innovation market revenue was 5.626 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.58% [2] - Frozen rice and flour products revenue was 5.829 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.46%, while frozen seasoning products revenue was 1.076 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.44% [2] - Revenue from distribution channels was 5.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.25%, while direct sales revenue was 1.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.87% [2] - Direct e-commerce revenue was 229 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.71%, with the "raw dumplings" product exceeding 100 million yuan in sales [2] Profitability and Costs - In 2023, the gross margin was 25.84%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.23 percentage points, and in Q4 2023, it was 22.76%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.05 percentage points [2] - In Q1 2024, the gross margin was 26.60%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.68 percentage points [2] - The sales expense ratio in 2023 was 11.48%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.41 percentage points, and the management expense ratio was 2.30%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.64 percentage points [2] - The non-GAAP net profit margin in 2023 was 9.15%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.39 percentage points, and in Q1 2024, it was 8.76%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.39 percentage points [2] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 2.3%/3.5%/4.2% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 7.22/7.47/7.79 billion yuan [2][3] - Net profit is expected to grow by 1.2%/2.7%/4.4% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 759/779/813 million yuan [2][3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14/14/13 times for 2024-2026 [2][3] Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is projected to be 14/14/13 times [3][6] - The P/B ratio for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.3/2.1/2.0 times [6] - The dividend yield for 2024-2026 is projected to be 4.18%/4.30%/4.48% [6]