一季度业绩同比回升，盈利能力有望增强

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its leading position in the industry and potential for profit improvement [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The company's Q1 2024 performance showed a year-on-year recovery, with revenue increasing by 2.81% to 808.14 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 4.4% to 19.26 billion yuan [1] - The company's profitability is expected to improve, with gross and net profit margins likely to increase in the future due to optimized product structure and cost reductions [1] - The company's production and sales volumes continued to grow, with 2023 output reaching 51.94 million tons, a 4.2% increase year-on-year, and exports hitting a record high [1] - The company's cost-cutting efforts were significant, achieving a reduction of 5.01 billion yuan in 2023 and 2.24 billion yuan in Q1 2024, supporting its outperformance in the industry [1] Financial Performance - The company's 2023 revenue was 344.5 billion yuan, a 6.3% decrease year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.944 billion yuan, down 2.0% year-on-year [1] - The company's gross profit margin for Q1 2024 was 5.13%, down from previous quarters, but is expected to rise in the future [1] - The company's cash dividend payout ratio for the second half of 2023 was 58.72%, the highest since 2021, and is expected to remain high as capital expenditures decrease [2] Product Line and Market Position - The company's high-end product sales, under the "1+1+N" strategy, reached 27.92 million tons in 2023, a 10% increase year-on-year, and 7.312 million tons in Q1 2024, up 16.5% year-on-year [1] - The company is a leader in the industry, focusing on high-end specialty steel plate manufacturing, benefiting from mergers, acquisitions, and product structure optimization [2] Future Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 13.32 billion yuan, 13.99 billion yuan, and 15.01 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The company's valuation is expected to recover, with a mid-range valuation corresponding to a market capitalization of around 234.2 billion yuan and a high-range valuation of around 354.6 billion yuan [2] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.60 yuan, 0.63 yuan, and 0.68 yuan, respectively [2] - The company's ROE is expected to remain stable, with projections of 6.6%, 6.6%, and 6.7% for 2024-2026 [2] - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 13.1x in 2023 to 10.4x in 2026, indicating potential valuation upside [2]