Fuling Zhacai(002507) 华创证券·2024-04-28 07:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.8 CNY, compared to the current price of 13.02 CNY [6][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q1 revenue of 749 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 272 million CNY, an increase of 3.93% year-on-year. The net profit margin stood at 36.29%, up by 1.9 percentage points [15]. - The report highlights that despite a high base and weak demand impacting revenue, the company performed slightly better than expected due to natural channel replenishment. The management's focus on channel inventory control and cash collection contributed to this performance [15]. - The report anticipates that Q1 will be the low point for the year, with expectations for improvement in subsequent quarters driven by national reform initiatives and management adjustments [15]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2,450 million CNY for 2023, 2,667 million CNY for 2024 (8.9% growth), 2,881 million CNY for 2025 (8.0% growth), and 3,112 million CNY for 2026 (8.0% growth) [7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 827 million CNY for 2023, 910 million CNY for 2024 (10.0% growth), 1,012 million CNY for 2025 (11.3% growth), and 1,105 million CNY for 2026 (9.2% growth) [7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.72 CNY for 2023, 0.79 CNY for 2024, 0.88 CNY for 2025, and 0.96 CNY for 2026 [7]. Management and Strategy - The new management team is focusing on internal resource integration and efficiency improvements, with a clear direction for national reform. The management is actively engaging with the market and production bases to address issues and refine growth strategies [15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining low channel inventory and optimizing organizational structure to support future growth [15].