2024年一季报点评报告：业绩表现强劲，头部效应持续显现

Investment Rating - A-shares: Buy (maintained) with a current price/target price of CNY 49.23/63.01 [1] - H-shares: Buy (maintained) with a current price/target price of HKD 47.25/55.45 [1] Core Views - Strong 1Q24 performance: Revenue increased by 25.3% YoY to CNY 8.84 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 51.8% YoY to CNY 1.39 billion [1] - Gross margin improved both YoY and QoQ, reaching 36.8% in 1Q24, driven by lower natural gas prices, internal efficiency improvements, and economies of scale [1] - Overseas growth prospects are promising, with overseas automotive glass revenue increasing by 31.1% YoY [1] - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in volume, price, and profitability, driven by capacity advantages and high-value-added products [2] Financial Performance - 1Q24 automotive glass sales volume increased by 20.0% YoY, with ASP rising by 7.5% YoY [1] - Domestic and overseas automotive glass revenues increased by 27.3% and 31.1% YoY, respectively [1] - The company's 2024E/2025E/2026E net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be CNY 6.57 billion, CNY 7.58 billion, and CNY 8.50 billion, respectively [2] Market and Industry Analysis - The company is expanding its presence in both the OEM and aftermarket segments, with a CNY 5.75 billion investment in a new automotive safety glass project in Hefei, Anhui [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of high-value-added products such as sunroofs, HUDs, and ADAS-equipped windshields [2] - The company's global market share is expected to rise steadily due to competitors' production pressures and its own capacity advantages [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company's 2024E/2025E/2026E revenue is forecasted to be CNY 40.41 billion, CNY 46.50 billion, and CNY 51.86 billion, respectively [3] - The 2024E/2025E/2026E EPS is forecasted to be CNY 2.52, CNY 2.90, and CNY 3.26, respectively [3] - The 2024E/2025E/2026E ROE is expected to be 18.97%, 19.99%, and 20.49%, respectively [3] Operational Efficiency - The company's 1Q24 SG&A expense ratio decreased by 0.1 ppts YoY and 0.3 ppts QoQ to 16.7% [1] - The company's 2024E/2025E/2026E gross margin is forecasted to be 36.0%, 36.4%, and 36.7%, respectively [7] - The company's 2024E/2025E/2026E EBITDA margin is forecasted to be 25.7%, 25.5%, and 25.8%, respectively [7]