24Q1需求疲软公司低价走量，价格拐点或仍需等待

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the high-performance carbon fiber sector, with expectations of expanding its competitive advantages during the current industry downturn. It is anticipated to benefit from the recovery in aviation demand, the export of domestic carbon fiber, and the growth of new demands in the low-altitude economy, ensuring long-term growth potential [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of approximately 448 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 42 million yuan, down 68.12% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was about 15 million yuan, reflecting an 86.97% decline year-on-year [5] - The average price of domestic carbon fiber in Q1 2024 was approximately 95.45 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year decrease of 33.95% but a slight increase of 0.24% compared to the previous quarter [5] - The company's gross margin for Q1 2024 was approximately 25.25%, a decrease of 15.60 percentage points year-on-year, but an improvement of 9.15 percentage points compared to Q4 2023 [5] - The company’s total production capacity is expected to increase from 28,500 tons to 58,500 tons with the completion of a new project, which will further enhance its scale and cost advantages [6] Market Dynamics - The carbon fiber market has experienced tentative price adjustments since late 2023, primarily driven by rising costs of raw materials. However, the overall market demand remains weak, limiting the potential for significant price increases [6] - The company is expected to maintain its competitive edge as non-leading firms face increasing pressure, allowing it to expand its scale, cost efficiency, and product matrix [6] Future Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated to be 384 million yuan, 532 million yuan, and 765 million yuan, respectively, indicating a recovery trajectory [9][10]