TFME(002156) 国信证券·2024-04-29 02:30Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Tongfu Microelectronics (002156 SZ) [1][4] Core Views - Tongfu Microelectronics' Q1 2024 revenue increased by 13 8% YoY, with a 2024 revenue target of 25 28 billion yuan, up 13 52% YoY [1] - The company is AMD's largest packaging and testing supplier, holding over 80% of AMD's orders, and is expected to benefit from the growth in AI demand [1] - Memory-related monthly revenue hit a record high in 2023, with automotive product projects growing by 200% YoY [1] - The company is investing in advanced packaging R&D, including 2D+ and 3D stacking technologies, and plans to acquire a 26% stake in Jinglong Technology for 1 378 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 22 269 billion yuan (YoY +3 92%), with 95% coming from IC packaging and testing, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 169 million yuan (YoY -66 24%) [1] - Q1 2024 revenue was 5 282 billion yuan (YoY +13 8%, QoQ -17%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 98 million yuan (YoY +2064%, QoQ -58%) [1] - Gross margin in Q1 2024 was 12 14% (YoY +2 7pct, QoQ -0 5pct) [1] Industry Trends - AI server and AI terminal demand is increasing, with MIC forecasting a 24 7% CAGR for AI server shipments from 2022 to 2027 [1] - Gartner predicts that by the end of 2024, GenAI smartphone and AI PC shipments will reach 240 million and 54 5 million units, respectively, with a penetration rate of 22% [1] Financial Forecasts - Forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 865 million yuan, 1 293 billion yuan, and 1 514 billion yuan, respectively [1] - The company's PE ratio as of April 26, 2024, is 37x for 2024, 25x for 2025, and 21x for 2026 [1] Revenue Composition - In 2023, 94 9% of the company's revenue came from IC packaging and testing, with the remaining from materials sales, mold fees, waste, and other services [5] Profit Trends - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders showed significant volatility from 2017 to 2023, with a sharp decline in 2023 [6] Quarterly Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was 5 282 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 13 8% and QoQ decline of 17% [7] - Q1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 98 million yuan, with a YoY increase of 2064% and QoQ decline of 58% [7] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin and net margin trends from 2017 to 2023 show fluctuations, with gross margin at 12 14% in Q1 2024 [8][9] Financial Ratios - Key financial ratios for 2024-2026 include a forecasted ROE of 5 9%, 8 2%, and 8 9%, and a gross margin of 13% for all three years [11]