Sinopec Corp.(600028) 民生证券·2024-04-29 03:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.54 yuan [2][7] Core Views - The company's exploration business maintains high profitability due to stable crude oil prices and increased natural gas production, with EBIT growing by 11.0% YoY in Q1 2024 [1] - Refining profitability declined due to lower refined oil prices, with refining EBIT dropping by 34.2% YoY in Q1 2024 [1] - Chemical business losses narrowed due to cost control measures, with EBIT improving to -16.09 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - Marketing and distribution business showed steady growth, with overseas sales volume increasing by 22.8% YoY and EBIT rising by 2.4% in Q1 2024 [1] - Domestic demand recovery is expected to drive profitability improvements in refining and chemical businesses [1] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - Q1 2024 revenue was 789.97 billion yuan, down 0.2% YoY [1] - Q1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.32 billion yuan, down 8.9% YoY [1] - 2024E revenue is projected at 3.46 trillion yuan, up 7.6% YoY [2] - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 70.41 billion yuan, up 16.4% YoY [2] Exploration and Development - Crude oil production reached 70.36 million barrels in Q1 2024, up 1.3% YoY [1] - Natural gas production was 350.5 billion cubic feet in Q1 2024, up 6.0% YoY [1] - Exploration and development EBIT was 14.82 billion yuan in Q1 2024, up 11.0% YoY [1] Refining - Refined oil production was 38.83 million tons in Q1 2024, up 4.1% YoY [1] - Refining cash operating cost decreased by 5.0% to 3.83 USD/barrel in Q1 2024 [1] - Refining EBIT was 6.89 billion yuan in Q1 2024, down 34.2% YoY [1] Chemical - Ethylene production was 3.28 million tons in Q1 2024, down 2.0% YoY [1] - Chemical unit processing cost decreased by 10.3% to 1,370 yuan/ton in Q1 2024 [1] - Chemical EBIT was -1.61 billion yuan in Q1 2024, with losses narrowing [1] Marketing and Distribution - Domestic refined oil sales volume was 45.58 million tons in Q1 2024, up 2.3% YoY [1] - Overseas refined oil sales volume was 14.23 million tons in Q1 2024, up 22.8% YoY [1] - Marketing and distribution EBIT was 8.68 billion yuan in Q1 2024, up 2.4% YoY [1] Valuation and Forecast - 2024E EPS is projected at 0.58 yuan/share, with a PE ratio of 11x [2] - 2025E EPS is forecasted at 0.61 yuan/share, with a PE ratio of 11x [2] - 2026E EPS is expected to reach 0.64 yuan/share, with a PE ratio of 10x [2] - PB ratio is projected at 0.9x for 2024-2026 [2] Historical Performance - 2023 revenue was 3.21 trillion yuan, down 3.2% YoY [5] - 2023 net profit attributable to shareholders was 60.46 billion yuan, down 9.9% YoY [5] - 2023 ROE was 7.50%, with a net profit margin of 1.88% [5]