JCHX(603979) 光大证券·2024-04-29 03:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The mining service sector shows stable growth, while the resource sector has made its first contribution to performance [2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 7.4 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.03 billion yuan, up 69% [2]. - The report anticipates continued upward momentum in copper prices due to limited supply growth and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the mining service segment generated revenue of 6.61 billion yuan, a 25.52% increase year-on-year, accounting for 89.3% of total revenue [3]. - The resource segment reported revenue of 630 million yuan in 2023, contributing approximately 16% to the net profit attributable to shareholders [3]. - For Q1 2024, the company recorded revenue of 1.97 billion yuan, a 34% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 270 million yuan, up 48% [2]. Segment Analysis - The mining service segment's overseas revenue reached 4.16 billion yuan in 2023, growing by 28.83% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 28.95% [3]. - The resource segment's Dikulushi copper mine produced and sold approximately 10,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2023, generating sales revenue of 510 million yuan [3]. - The Lonshi copper mine is expected to start contributing to production in 2024, with a target output of 40,000 tons of copper metal by the end of 2024 [3]. Market Outlook - The report forecasts a global refined copper supply-demand gap of -10/-39/-64 thousand tons from 2023 to 2025, indicating a bullish outlook for copper prices [3]. - The anticipated increase in copper prices is supported by a long-term decline in capital expenditure growth in the copper industry and a steady rise in traditional demand [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 and 2025 is 1.7 billion yuan and 2.32 billion yuan, respectively, with an upward revision of 8% and 17% [4]. - The report introduces a new profit forecast for 2026, estimating a net profit of 2.48 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19X, 14X, and 13X for 2024-2026 [4].