HAI TIAN(603288) 国泰君安·2024-04-29 06:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haitian Flavor Industry Co., Ltd. (603288) with a target price of 50.00 CNY, while the current price is 38.84 CNY [4][9]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2024 slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit showing year-on-year growth of 10% and 12%, respectively. The overall revenue for 2023 was 246 billion CNY, down 4% year-on-year, while net profit was 56 billion CNY, down 9% year-on-year [3][9]. - The company is focusing on reforming its customized seasoning business in response to market changes, which is expected to lead to long-term growth despite short-term operational pressures [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 246 billion CNY and net profit of 56 billion CNY, with a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio to 65%, up 12.72 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - For Q1 2024, revenue reached 77 billion CNY, a 10% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 19 billion CNY, up 12% year-on-year [3][9]. Product Performance - In 2023, the revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, and oyster sauce declined by 8.83%, 6.08%, and 3.74%, respectively, while other businesses saw a growth of 19.35% due to increased sales of vinegar and cooking wine [9]. - In Q1 2024, revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, and oyster sauce increased by 10.06%, 6.44%, and 9.63%, respectively, driven by improved market conditions and inventory reduction [9]. Profitability - The gross margin for 2023 was 34.74%, down 0.94 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 22.97%, down 1.25 percentage points year-on-year. In Q1 2024, the gross margin improved to 37.31%, up 0.38 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 25.06%, up 0.37 percentage points year-on-year [10][9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue launching new products and enhancing its distribution network in 2024, which is anticipated to lead to sustained performance improvement [3][10]. - EPS forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted to 1.12 CNY and 1.29 CNY, respectively, with a projected EPS of 1.51 CNY for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 11%, 15%, and 17% year-on-year [3][10].