Pylon Technologies(688063) 东吴证券·2024-04-29 17:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q1 performance met market expectations with revenue of 390 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 79% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 99% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 103% [3] - The company expects Q1 shipments to reach 0.25 GWh, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30%. By the end of Q2, channel inventory is anticipated to be gradually consumed, with a projected year-on-year growth rate of 40% for European household storage demand in 2024, leading to an expected shipment of 3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 60% [3] - The company has turned a profit on a per watt-hour basis, with the average price expected to be around 1.7-1.8 yuan (including tax), a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 15%. If the equity cost of 10 million yuan is added back, the profit per watt-hour is around 0.05 yuan, indicating a turnaround to profitability [3] - Capital expenditures have significantly decreased, with inventory remaining stable. In Q1 2024, total expenses were 120 million yuan, down 29% year-on-year and up 29% quarter-on-quarter. The inventory was 700 million yuan, a decrease of 70 million yuan from the beginning of the year [3] - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 is maintained at 370 million, 530 million, and 740 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 38x, 27x, and 19x. Given the company's position as a global leader in household storage and the gradual recovery of demand in Europe, the "Buy" rating is upheld [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,299 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 45.13%. For 2024, revenue is expected to be 3,922 million yuan, reflecting an 18.88% increase [2][3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is forecasted at 515.64 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.49%, while for 2024, it is expected to be 368.54 million yuan, a decrease of 28.53% [2][3] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 2.94 yuan per share, with an expected decrease to 2.10 yuan in 2024 [2][3] - The company's total assets are estimated to reach 12,131 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 13,266 million yuan in 2024 [8]