Q1净利润183亿，业绩略超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [6][12]. Core Insights - In Q1 2024, the company reported a net profit of 18.3 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations, despite a year-on-year decline of 8.88% [1]. - The company's total revenue for Q1 2024 reached 790 billion yuan, showing a minor decrease of 0.17% year-on-year [1]. - The upstream exploration segment demonstrated significant cost control, achieving a 3.4% increase in oil and gas equivalent production, with a notable 9.0% rise in profits despite lower natural gas prices [2]. - The refining segment continues to face pressure, with refining unit profits down by 1.2 USD per barrel year-on-year, attributed to weak downstream demand and ongoing releases of new chemical production capacity [3]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 64.7 billion yuan, 70.8 billion yuan, and 81.2 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 10 [3][4]. - The projected dividend yield for A-shares is estimated at 5.7%, 6.2%, and 7.1% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, while H-shares are expected to yield 8.5%, 9.3%, and 10.7% [3]. Financial Data Overview - For 2024E, the company expects total revenue of approximately 335.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.32% [4]. - The EBITDA for 2024E is projected at 225.7 billion yuan, with a slight increase from the previous year [4]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach approximately 2,060.98 billion yuan by 2024E, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 50.83% [8].