Ligao Foods (300973) Wanlian Securities·2024-04-30 13:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company, indicating a projected relative price increase of 5% to 15% over the next six months [3][25]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 3.499 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.22%. However, the net profit decreased by 49.21% to 73 million yuan, primarily due to increased expenses and a decline in gross margin [9][18]. - The company’s gross margin slightly decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 31.39%, attributed to a drop in the gross margin of its main product, frozen baked goods [6][18]. - The report forecasts a recovery in profitability due to the expected decrease in raw material prices and the reduction of stock option expenses, projecting net profits of 252 million yuan, 291 million yuan, and 338 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][19]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, revenue from frozen baked goods reached 2.211 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.93%. Revenue from baking ingredients was 1.262 billion yuan, up 12.71% [3][10]. - The sales channels showed significant differentiation, with direct sales growing by 49.23% to 1.489 billion yuan, while retail sales dropped by 21.82% to 13 million yuan [3][10]. Expense Analysis - Sales expenses increased by 36.61% to 474 million yuan, with the sales expense ratio rising by 1.62 percentage points to 13.54% due to higher transportation and marketing costs [6][18]. - Management expenses rose by 35.10% to 334 million yuan, with the management expense ratio increasing by 1.05 percentage points to 9.56% [6][18]. Profit Forecast - The report projects a significant recovery in net profit for 2024, with an expected growth of 244.79% compared to 2023, followed by growth rates of 15.70% and 16.01% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [6][19].