食品饮料/休闲食品 立高食品（300973.SZ） 冷冻烘焙恢复增长，奶油继续发力 2025 年 04 月 30 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 43.12 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 48.98/22.28 | | 总市值(亿元) | 73.02 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 49.08 | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.69 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 1.14 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 216.68 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 立高食品 沪深300 相关研究报告 2025Q1 收入恢复双位数以上增长 2024 年公司营收 38.4 亿元，同比+9.6%；扣非前后归母净利润 2.68、2.54 亿元， 同比+266.9%、+108.2%。2025Q1 营收 10.5 亿元，同比+14.1%；扣非前后归母 净利润 0.88、0.86 亿元，同比+15.1%、+27.3%。短期棕榈油成本高居不下，调 整 20 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·休闲食品 立高食品（300973） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 04 月 30 日 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李茵琦 执业证书：S0600524110002 liyinqi@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评：Q1 业绩超 预期，内部改革效果释放 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,499 | 3,835 | 4,420 | 4,897 | 5,390 | | 同比（%） | 20.22 | 9.61 | 15.24 | 10.80 | 10.05 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 73.03 | 267.97 | 340.87 | 415.91 | 472.25 | | 同比（%） | (49.21) ...

近期立高食品（300973）发布2025年一季报，证券之星财报模型分析如下： 营收与利润 立高食品在2025年一季度实现了营业总收入10.46亿元，同比上升14.13%；归母净利润达到8837.15万 元，同比增长15.11%；扣非净利润为8626.43万元，同比大幅增长27.3%。这表明公司在主营业务方面保 持了良好的增长态势。 盈利能力 尽管收入和利润有所增长，但公司的盈利能力指标显示出一定的压力。毛利率为29.99%，同比下降 7.97%；净利率为8.2%，同比下降1.13%。这可能意味着公司在成本控制方面面临挑战。 费用控制 值得注意的是，公司的三费(销售费用、管理费用、财务费用)总计1.69亿元，占营收比例为16.13%，较 去年同期下降14.5%。这表明公司在费用控制方面取得了一定成效。 应收账款与现金流 本季度，立高食品的应收账款显著增加至3.69亿元，同比增幅达37.83%，远超营业收入的增长速度。同 时，每股经营性现金流为-0.2元，同比减少267.74%，显示出公司在现金流管理方面存在较大压力。 资产负债情况 公司的有息负债为11.2亿元，同比增加19.46%，有息资产负债率已达25.87 ...

事件：2025 年4 月28 日，立高食品发布2024 年年报及2025 一季报，2024 年实现营收38.35 亿元，同比 增长9.61%；实现归母净利润2.68 亿元，同比增长266.94%。25Q1 实现营收10.46 亿元，同比增长 14.13%；实现归母净利润0.88 亿元，同比增长15.11%。 公司不断丰富产品矩阵，奶油产品表现亮眼。2024 年冷冻烘焙/奶油/水果制品/酱料/其他烘焙原材料实 现收入21.33/10.58/1.66/2.25/2.26 亿元，同比-3.53%/+61.75%/-11.34%/-3.58%/20.66%。其中奶油产品表 现亮眼，2024 年度公司UHT 奶油产品线实现销售收入超5 亿元，带动奶油类产品营收同比增长超 60%，占比27.66%，同比增加8.93pct。25Q1 冷冻烘焙/烘焙食品同比增长12%/17%，占比60%/40%，其 中UHT 奶油产品及酱料类产品表现突出。 优化经销商体系初显成效，渠道多元化发展把握商超调改趋势。2024 年经销/直销/零售/其他渠道分别 实现收入22.22/15.86/0.09/0.18 亿元，同比+12.75%/+6.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 270 million yuan, up 266.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s UHT cream product line generated over 500 million yuan in sales in 2024, contributing to a 61.8% year-on-year growth in cream product revenue [2]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 31.5%, with a slight decrease to 30.0% in Q1 2025 due to rising raw material prices and changes in product and channel mix [3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.45 billion yuan, 5.02 billion yuan, and 5.58 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 350 million yuan, 390 million yuan, and 460 million yuan [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 3.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 270 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 250 million yuan [1]. - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.12 billion yuan, with a net profit of 70 million yuan, and for Q1 2025, the revenue was 1.05 billion yuan, with a net profit of 90 million yuan [1]. Product Performance - The revenue from frozen baking and baking ingredients in 2024 was 2.13 billion yuan and 1.67 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -3.5% and +32.7%, respectively [2]. - The cream product line saw a significant increase in sales, with UHT cream contributing to a 61.8% growth in cream product revenue in 2024 [2]. Cost Management - The company successfully reduced its sales expense ratio to 12.1% in 2024, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, due to strict budget management [3]. - The management expense ratio also decreased to 6.7%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced share-based payment expenses [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in cream and supermarket new products, with revenue projections of 4.45 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 16.1% year-on-year increase [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% in stock price compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [5][18]. Core Insights - The company reported revenue of 3.835 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10%, and a net profit of 268 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 267% compared to the previous year [2][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 1.046 billion yuan, up 14.13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, marking a 15.11% increase [2][6]. - The company has successfully narrowed its expense ratios, leading to improved net profit margins of 6.99% for 2024 and 8.45% for Q1 2025, despite a slight decline in gross margins due to rising raw material costs [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved revenues of 3.835 billion yuan, with a net profit of 268 million yuan, and an EPS of 1.58 yuan per share [6][11]. - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 356 million yuan and 420 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.10 yuan and 2.48 yuan [5][6]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 31.47%, with a slight decrease to 29.99% in Q1 2025, while the overall expense ratio decreased significantly, enhancing profitability [4][6]. Product and Channel Performance - The company’s frozen baking segment showed a recovery with a revenue of 6.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 12% year-on-year, while the cream segment grew by 17% [3][4]. - The distribution channels for 2024 included revenue contributions of 2.221 billion yuan from distribution, 1.580 billion yuan from direct sales, and 0.07 billion yuan from retail, with the distribution channel benefiting from increased sales of cream products [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue leveraging growth opportunities in the frozen baking sector and UHT cream business, with ongoing improvements in production efficiency and cost management strategies [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 3.84 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 270 million yuan, up 266.9% year-on-year, indicating strong financial performance driven by the rapid growth of its cream product line and effective channel transformation strategies [1] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 270 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 250 million yuan, reflecting increases of 9.6%, 266.9%, and 108.2% year-on-year respectively [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year, indicating continued growth momentum [1] - The company's non-recurring net profit margin for 2024 was 6.6%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 31.5% [2] Product and Channel Performance - The revenue growth by product category for 2024 showed a decline in frozen baking and sauces, while cream products surged by 61.8%, indicating a strong demand for UHT cream products [1] - The company has over 1,800 distributors and more than 600 direct sales customers, with revenue from distribution channels, supermarkets, and new retail channels showing varied growth rates [1] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the ongoing trend of cream product sales and channel transformations, particularly in membership stores and supermarkets [1] Cost Management - The company improved its cost structure, with a sales expense ratio of 12.1% for 2024, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to refined management practices [2] - The management expense ratio for 2024 was 6.7%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting strict control over executive expenses [2] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4.38 billion, 5.05 billion, and 5.86 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 14.2%, 15.3%, and 16.1% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 320 million, 370 million, and 430 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 18.3%, 15.8%, and 17.5% respectively [3] - The company is positioned to maintain a strong growth trajectory in the baking sector, supported by its product strength and supply chain capabilities [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9]. Core Views - The company's operational trends are improving, leading to a release in profitability [1]. - The total revenue for 2024 reached 3.835 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 268 million yuan, up 267% year-on-year [4][9]. - The company is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements, with a slight recovery in gross margin expected [5]. - New product launches in supermarkets are performing well, particularly in the cream category, which is expected to continue driving growth [6][8]. - The company is adjusting its distribution channels to capitalize on new opportunities in supermarkets [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.835 billion yuan, with a net profit of 268 million yuan, reflecting significant growth [4][11]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.046 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, up 15% [4]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 31.47% and 29.99%, respectively, with slight fluctuations due to changes in product mix and raw material costs [5]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 6.87%, while for Q1 2025, it was 8.20% [5]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from frozen baking products in 2024 was 2.133 billion yuan, a decrease of 4%, while cream revenue increased by 62% to 1.058 billion yuan [6]. - The company plans to expand its cream product matrix and optimize profitability through domestic raw material substitution [6]. Channel Strategy - Revenue from distribution channels in 2024 was 2.221 billion yuan, a 13% increase, driven by cream product sales [7]. - The company is actively exploring new channel clients and adjusting its supermarket strategies to enhance growth opportunities [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company expects EPS of 1.97, 2.31, and 2.75 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 16, and 14 times [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company's operational trends are improving, leading to a release in profitability [1] - In 2024, total revenue reached 3.835 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 268 million yuan, up 267% [4][8] - The company is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements, with a slight recovery in gross margin expected [5][8] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 1.118 billion yuan, a 22% year-on-year increase, and net profit was 65 million yuan, compared to a loss of 85 million yuan in Q4 2023 [4] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.046 billion yuan, a 14% year-on-year increase, with net profit of 88 million yuan, up 15% [4] - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 31.47% and 29.99%, respectively, reflecting changes in channel and product structure [5] Product and Channel Strategy - The company is expanding its product matrix in the cream category, with significant growth in UHT cream products [6][8] - Revenue from the cream segment in 2024 was 1.058 billion yuan, a 62% increase year-on-year [6] - The company is actively exploring new channel opportunities and has seen good sales performance from new products launched in supermarkets [7] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see continued profit recovery, with EPS projected at 1.97 yuan for 2025, 2.31 yuan for 2026, and 2.75 yuan for 2027 [8][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 19 for 2025, 16 for 2026, and 14 for 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][21]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 3.835 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million yuan, up 266.9% year-on-year [1][5]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.118 billion yuan, a 22.0% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 65 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1][5]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.046 billion yuan, up 14.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, reflecting a 15.1% increase [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue growth was driven by significant increases in the cream segment, which saw a 61.8% year-on-year increase, while other segments like frozen baking and sauces experienced declines [1][5]. - The revenue distribution across channels in 2024 was 57% from circulation, 25% from supermarkets, and 18% from catering, with circulation and catering channels showing growth of approximately 15% and 20% respectively [1][5]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.5%, a slight increase from the previous year, while the net profit margin improved to 6.9%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [1][5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in 2025, driven by clear growth drivers such as cream products, Sam's Club, and catering [1][5]. - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to be 1.97 yuan, with further increases to 2.26 yuan in 2026 and 2.59 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1][5]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 49.5 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25 times for 2025 [1][5].